#数字资产市场动态 TAO Shorting Opportunity Window Analysis

Currently, $TAO quote$ 225.4, and this level is quite interesting — the daily chart has already formed a complete downtrend pattern, with the price well below all moving averages (20-day $237, 50-day $274, 200-day $324). RSI is only 38.6, indicating that the medium to long-term remains in a weak phase.

From a technical perspective, $229 is the upper band of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands and also a tough nut to crack. More importantly, the $230-232 range is packed with a large number of long liquidation orders, making a short-term breakout quite difficult. The funding rate is currently positive, with long liquidations reaching $80,000 in 24 hours, while short liquidations are only $27,000. This reflects that market bullish sentiment is a bit overextended.

The OBV indicator plainly shows — all on the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts are negative, indicating that this rally lacks volume support; not many buyers are entering, which is a classic volume-price divergence.

From liquidation perspective, if the price breaks below $221 (the intersection point of the moving average and the middle Bollinger Band), it could trigger a chain reaction. Around $217, there is a $1.6 million long liquidation accumulation, and at $212, even $2.6 million. Once these levels are triggered, the selling pressure could be fierce.

The operational plan is as follows: wait for the $226-228 zone to test, observe if there are rejection signals (such as long upper shadows or another volume-price divergence). If the signals are clear, enter in batches — 40% at $227, add 30% at $228.5, keeping total position within 4%. Entry conditions are a bearish crossover on the 1-hour MACD, combined with two consecutive candles closing below $229.

For take profit, close 60% at $217, and the remaining 30% at $212. But be cautious: if the open interest increases and the funding rate remains positive, it might be necessary to exit early.

Risks cannot be ignored: this short position is somewhat against the short-term rhythm, as the MACD on 15-minute and 1-hour charts is still expanding positively. If Grayscale’s S-1 shows any positive signals or other good news, $230 could break at any moment, triggering stop-loss immediately. The narrative of halving supply tightening still influences market sentiment, so caution is essential, and a clear technical rejection signal must be used as an anchor.