#预测市场 Prediction markets—I've been observing them for many years, and increasingly I see them as a mirror—reflecting not only market consensus but also human greed and fear.

Wash's probability jumped from 7% directly to 48%, Hasset's dropped from 85% to 42%, and this reversal made me a bit emotional. The underlying logic is quite clear: when Trump publicly endorses Wash, the market follows suit and bets accordingly. But this is exactly what I want to remind everyone—hot money flows in prediction markets are often the biggest trap.

Do you remember how many "certain" predictions I’ve seen in the crypto space over the years? What consensus, what big V endorsements, what institutional chips—ultimately? A breaking news story, a policy shift, and all the "high probability events" collapse instantly. In Wash's case, the real danger isn't that the prediction itself was wrong, but that too many people treat the probabilities in prediction markets as certainties and go all-in on the trend.

The digital fluctuations on these platforms are, frankly, just emotional games played by participants. Today Wash is leading; tomorrow, new political variables might emerge. Instead of obsessing over these constantly changing probabilities, ask yourself: does this information have any substantive impact on my asset allocation? Can it change my investment logic?

The same old advice—those who live long never chase high probabilities; they only watch for risk points. Prediction markets can be referenced, but never get addicted to them.