#加密行情预测

As the year comes to an end, the biggest feeling among crypto family members should be shock and numbness! The market fluctuates between 84,000 and 90,000, repeatedly failing to break through convincingly. Watching gold and silver in the neighboring markets surge to headlines every night makes people truly envious, jealous, and resentful! So, has the crypto market bottomed out? When can we see a breakout from the sideways trend? Is now a good time to bottom fish for Bitcoin and Ethereum? Little财神 believes: the bear market has just begun, and bottom fishing should be cautious!

👉Long-term Cycle: The bear market is not over yet, the first target is around 80,000

After Bitcoin's price fell below the 60-week moving average, it has technically entered a bear market. Several other indicators also support this: Bitcoin's price has continuously broken below the 365-day moving average (MA365) in Q4 2025, a long-term technical threshold historically used to distinguish between bull and bear markets. More specifically, the price not only fell below the 200-day moving average but also failed to rebound effectively above these key levels. Every attempt to recover was met with strong selling pressure, indicating that structural market weakness has replaced short-term volatility, a typical sign of technical surrender. Additionally, momentum indicators like RSI and MACD remain in oversold territory, further confirming the accumulation of downside momentum and trend reversal depth. Combining Fibonacci retracement analysis, Bitcoin failed to hold important support levels and accelerated towards lower support zones, reinforcing the technical landscape dominated by a bear market.

Therefore, although Bitcoin and Ethereum currently appear to be consolidating at high levels, a breakdown and decline are inevitable. Once it falls, the first target will be near the round number of $80,000, with the ultimate bear market target possibly around $60,000+.

👉Outlook for 2026: The market may fall first and then rise

In early 2026, Bitcoin may face downward pressure. On-chain data analysis shows that demand from institutional investors has significantly slowed, and spot ETF fund flows have shifted to net outflows, weakening Bitcoin's short-term support. Derivatives market risk appetite has declined, further increasing the risk of a price correction. Moreover, the bull market in precious metals like gold and silver that began at the end of 2025 will also lead large amounts of capital to exit digital currencies and enter the "gold trading circle."

However, Bitcoin remains a digital gold with long-term investment value. It may begin an upward cycle in the middle or latter half of 2026. If the Federal Reserve and other central banks shift to easing monetary policies (such as rate cuts), the low-interest-rate environment will weaken the dollar's attractiveness and push funds into inflation-hedging assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, despite short-term weak demand, long-term institutional investors (such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds) remain interested in Bitcoin allocations. Infrastructure improvements (like the Lightning Network) and potential regulatory enhancements (such as crypto-friendly policies in the US) will further boost market confidence and support prices breaking previous highs.

👉My trading strategy: The sideways trend may end, focus on shorting at high levels

Next, I believe that trading Bitcoin and Ethereum should mainly involve short positions at high levels. Recent continuous fluctuations have gradually led everyone to accept the 86,000-90,000 range as a consolidation zone. More and more people are used to shorting at around 86,000-90,000 and longing at lower levels, thinking that the big players are just giving away money. However, historically, when investors develop a high consensus, it often signals an imminent trend reversal. It’s very likely that after the next decline, the price will break below 86,000 and continue southward. Therefore, in the late stage of a consolidation, choosing only one direction is safer. You can short near 89,000-90,000 with a stop loss above 92,000.