#预测市场 Seeing the data changes on Kalshi's prediction market, I have some thoughts I want to share.

At the beginning of the year, Gemini's winning probability was only 30%, and now it has risen to 86%—this shift reflects the true trajectory of AI technology evolution. The $14 million trading volume also indicates market attention. But I want to remind everyone that while prediction markets can help us observe market sentiment and estimate probabilities, they should not be the direct basis for our asset allocation.

The greatest value of this kind of information lies in helping us understand industry dynamics and grasp technological development directions, rather than making short-term bets. I've seen too many people heavily invest in a prediction just because the probability was high, only to see unexpected reversals in the market. The truly prudent approach is to incorporate this information into a long-term observation framework, using it to optimize our understanding of the tech sector and AI-related assets, but still adhere to your own position management principles when making specific allocations.

Probabilities are changing, markets are evolving, only a clear mind and scientific allocation methods can accompany us further.