#战略性加仓BTC $BTC How will the crypto market move with the Federal Reserve holding steady?

After the release of the December FOMC meeting minutes, market sentiment has been on a rollercoaster. From the previous frantic calls for "rate cuts soon" to now shifting to "maybe we need to wait a bit longer," the pricing logic of crypto traders has completely changed.

The current period is quite stressful. CME data shows—the probability of maintaining interest rates in January has soared to 84.5%-86.7%, directly dampening market expectations for liquidity easing. Looking at major mainstream coins, over the past ten days (December 23 to 30), they have plummeted by over 11%, and trading volume has also significantly shrunk. In a high-interest-rate environment, the risk-free return of the dollar becomes more attractive, and institutional fund managers are adopting a conservative strategy. The open interest in Bitcoin futures has even fallen back to the levels seen in February 2024. $ETH has not been spared either.

But that’s not the whole story. From a long-term perspective, the Fed’s rate cut cycle has already begun. The dot plot still points to easing expectations in 2025, plus the $40 billion monthly reserve management purchase plan, indicating that the medium- to long-term liquidity support framework remains unchanged. On-chain wallet data is quite interesting—Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are at historic lows, while long-term holders continue to accumulate steadily, indicating that large investors are not panicking and exiting.

The current situation is a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Macro data like Non-Farm Payrolls and Core PCE will be the next market trend indicators. Instead of relying solely on trend trading, it’s better to learn timing—closely monitor changes in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate expectations, pay attention to the real flow of on-chain funds, and find genuine entry opportunities amid the volatility. $BNB