December 31st Latest Intelligence: The Federal Reserve's December 9-10 meeting minutes have just been released, revealing a lot of information.

In simple terms, most Federal Reserve officials agree on one logic — as long as inflation continues to decline, further rate cuts are reasonable. But the key questions are: when to cut? How much to cut each time? Officials have different opinions on these issues.

The official minutes clearly state that some support a rate cut at this meeting, but also admit that it is a "delicate balance," and they are actually open to holding steady. Others suggest that after this cut, it might be better to hold for a while before making any moves.

What do the numbers say? Officials forecast possibly one rate cut by 2026 (25 basis points), but individual opinions vary greatly — some are bullish, some are bearish. In contrast, market investors generally expect at least two rate cuts in the next 12 months. The gap between these expectations is significant.

Another notable divergence is: which poses a greater threat to the economy — inflation or unemployment? The vast majority of officials lean towards a more balanced policy to prevent a collapse in the labor market. However, some warn that the risk of persistent inflation cannot be ignored.

This minutes essentially reinforce the market consensus: an 80% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January. For crypto traders, this means no short-term rate catalyst, but the expectation of rate cuts throughout the year remains, providing structural support for risk assets.