On December 31, XAU stabilized and rebounded after testing the 4303 bottom, ending the session firmly above 4350, with clear signs of a shakeout. As the last trading day of 2025, although year-end fund settlements slightly reduce market activity, the long-term positive outlook from the Fed's rate cut expectations continues to support prices. Coupled with the ongoing gold purchases by central banks worldwide, it is not easy for XAU to undergo a deep correction. Short-term fluctuations are normal at year-end, and combined with the clear bullish reversal signals already indicated by technical analysis, going long is a good strategy.

From the hourly Bollinger Bands chart, the three lines are gradually diverging upward from their previous converged state. The price remains above the middle band, with three consecutive candles closing above it, indicating that the short-term trend has shifted from consolidation to strength, and bulls are taking control of the market. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed a golden cross and are diverging upward. The price consistently stays above these moving averages, confirming their support role, and a typical bullish arrangement has been established. As long as the price does not break below these two moving averages, the bullish trend is unlikely to change.

Trading suggestions: 4315 is the preferred entry point, as it confirms the bullish signal after the golden cross of the two moving averages. Multiple closes above this level yesterday evening indicate strong bullish momentum. The re-entry opportunity is around 4300, the low point of yesterday’s correction, precisely aligning with the 10-day moving average, serving as a secondary support level with low risk during pullbacks. Set stop-loss at 4285, which is the recent lower boundary of the oscillation range and a key support of the previous upward trend line. A break below this level would mean the bulls' momentum has failed, and a prompt exit is advised. The target above is in the 4370-4400 range.