#预测市场 Prediction markets are truly eye-opening! The "Best AI by the end of 2025" contest on Kalshi has already surpassed $14 million in trading volume, and Gemini's probability of winning has soared from 30% at the beginning of the year to 86% now—this reversal is quite remarkable.

This is the magic of prediction markets. They are not just simple gambling; they turn the collective wisdom of market participants into real price signals. Every trade represents a view of the future, and real money involved makes everyone more cautious and rational. Compared to traditional polls or selections, this decentralized decision-making process better reflects the true market consensus.

And look at this data change—ChatGPT's probability dropped from 41% to 8%, and Grok's from 14% to 6%—indicating that the landscape of the AI field has undergone a real upheaval in recent months. The market is voting with its actions, producing a transparent, public, and tamper-proof prediction result.

This also inspires us that prediction markets are not just a financial innovation; they are becoming a new way to aggregate information. Whether in technology, politics, or sports, as long as there are enough participants and liquidity, market prices can approach the truth. This is the power of Web3—making information flow more freely and fostering more authentic consensus.