2025-12-30 17:22:50

Recently, the Federal Reserve Chair has once again become the focus of public discussion. More interestingly, this reflects the market's true expectations regarding policy direction.

Looking at data from prediction markets, since mid-December, the market's pricing for "holding steady" next month has gradually increased and is now at 87%. These predictions, backed by real money, often reflect participants' genuine thoughts.

From a broader perspective, the most pressing issue for the US now is the risk of stagflation. Interestingly, the Fed Chair's speech almost slipped and mentioned this term, but ultimately held back — a detail that reveals internal conflict.

The problem lies here: if interest rates are cut, inflation will rebound immediately; if not, economic growth and employment become problematic. The three main threats of stagflation are well known — economic stagnation, high inflation, and weak employment. Now, it's a dilemma with no easy way out.

Additionally, the financial markets have been hitting new highs continuously. From a policy standpoint, the Fed has little reason to intervene to rescue the market. As a result, the probability of a rate cut next month is indeed low.

What if there really is no rate cut? The trading market next month should be very interesting. I think the recent rally in US stocks might also need to pause, and I’ll share more thoughts later.

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AirdropHunter

· 01-02 04:32

87% chance is sitting right here, the Federal Reserve is really caught between a rock and a hard place. The word stagflation almost slipped out haha, my inner drama is on point. --- The recent rally in the US stock market really should come to a halt; without rate cuts as a cushion, it's hard to keep flying. --- Real money prediction markets are always more accurate than anything else, and this current pricing is basically a consensus. --- Economic stagnation combined with high inflation and poor employment—when these three come together, the Fed is truly at a loss. I feel exhausted just thinking about it. --- The key point is that the market is still at high levels, yet policy remains unchanged. That’s the most heartbreaking part. --- If there really is no rate cut next month, I’ll be waiting to see how these bulls come up with stories.

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AirdropHunter007

· 2025-12-31 18:18

87% this number says it all; money is the most honest. The Federal Reserve is really trapped this time; cutting or not cutting, neither seems possible. --- That phrase about stagflation almost slipped out, haha, it must have caused an internal explosion. --- Alright, let's wait and see the explosion next month. The US stock market should have peaked this wave. --- The predictive power of market forecasts is much more reliable than press releases. This time, 87% is no joke. --- Economic stagnation, high inflation, and high unemployment hitting simultaneously—it's really tough for the Federal Reserve. --- Are record highs in the financial markets actually a signal? Then this show has to go on. --- The consequences of not cutting interest rates might be even worse than cutting; traders will go crazy then. --- With this situation, the US stock market's eating-up phase should be over.

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probably_nothing_anon

· 2025-12-30 17:52

What does the 87% figure indicate? It means smart money is all in on holding steady. I almost blurted out the term "stagflation," which is truly a detail killer.

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MoonRocketman

· 2025-12-30 17:51

There's an 87% probability that the countdown data has already been fixed, and this launch window is definitely closing. The Federal Reserve is playing psychological warfare. --- Did I almost blurt out that stagflation statement? This guy has huge internal disagreements, and there are issues with refueling. --- Don't be fooled by the high financial market, RSI has long reached the upper end of the near-Earth orbit. The ascent angle coefficient needs calibration. --- If there's really no rate cut, traders will experience a gravity pullback next month. The Bollinger Bands channel will collapse entirely. Prepare your stop-loss levels, everyone. --- The market is betting on 87%, but I think the escape velocity for this orbit breakout is simply insufficient. The US stock market should find a landing point in this wave. --- The Federal Reserve's dilemma is the best signal for a short position. In a probability game, there's no hedging, only margin calls.

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ConsensusDissenter

· 2025-12-30 17:50

87% this number is too honest; predictions with real money can't fool people --- The Fed's hesitant details are truly brilliant; they already know they're trapped internally --- Stagflation is a dead end; how can this be broken? --- The US stock market is still rising, and the Fed has no excuse to rescue the market; isn't it about to collapse? --- The authenticity of the prediction market is always the highest; 87% already indicates the problem --- Raising or not raising is a trap; no wonder the chairman was hesitant to say anything during the speech --- If there's no rate cut next month, the market will have to react --- Financial markets hitting new highs, yet the Fed has no reason to intervene; this logic is a bit absolute --- Stagflation is the real ghost; everyone wants to avoid it --- This wave of US stock market performance might really be over; let's wait for next month's show

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TokenomicsShaman

· 2025-12-30 17:47

87% of the pricing, this is the answer from smart money, no need to say more. If there's really no rate cut, we should be bearish; this rally might be coming to an end. Stagflation is a tough hurdle, the Federal Reserve is truly stuck and has no way out.

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RugpullAlertOfficer

· 2025-12-30 17:42

87% really is outrageous, it feels like the Federal Reserve has already made up its mind and is just waiting to announce it. The recent rally in the US stock market definitely needs to be halted; liquidity can't support it. Stagflation is a dead end, no wonder the chairman was hesitant in his speech that day. Market predictions don't lie, there's really no hope next month. The real show is yet to come; let's wait until the rate cuts cool down.

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