Crypto Crystal Ball 2026: Will Cryptocurrencies Lose the Market Structure Act Battle?

In 2025, the cryptocurrency industry achieved near “fantasy” victories in regulation and markets. However, as we enter 2026, the ultimate battle that will determine the industry’s long-term fate has just begun—the legislative process of the U.S. “Crypto Market Structure Act.”

This legislation, dubbed the “Clear Law” within the industry, aims to thoroughly clarify the regulatory jurisdiction of digital assets and provide a legal foundation for the sector. But with the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approaching, the prospects for the bill are shrouded in heavy uncertainty. Industry insiders are even beginning to spread a pessimistic view: “The best timing for passing the Market Structure Act has already been missed.”

Current Status of the Bill: The “Clear” Dilemma in the Political Vortex

Under the dome of the U.S. Capitol, a debate about the future of cryptocurrency has fallen into deadlock. Although bipartisan discussions are ongoing, negotiations are hampered by thorny issues such as stablecoin regulation, jurisdiction over decentralized finance (DeFi), and even conflicts of interest involving the President’s family’s crypto holdings. According to industry advocates who spoke to The Block, the likelihood of the bill becoming law in 2026 is only 50% to 60%. This uncertainty mainly stems from the complex legislative path and the tight political schedule.

Currently, there are two main versions of the draft within the Senate. The version from the Banking Committee attempts to allocate jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC and create a new “auxiliary assets” category to clarify non-security tokens. The Agriculture Committee’s version aims to grant new powers to the CFTC. These two versions must be “marked up” and merged by early 2026 to proceed to the next stage.

Core Disputes: Four Major Bottlenecks Hindering Legislation

Deep disagreements within the bill act like solid reefs, blocking the legislative vessel’s progress. These conflicts involve not only technical details but also fundamental interests between traditional finance and the emerging crypto sector.

The first major issue centers on stablecoin regulation, especially interest-bearing stablecoins. The banking sector argues this distorts market incentives, while crypto advocates see it as fair competition. The second major dispute concerns DeFi regulation, with core debates over how anti-money laundering rules should be implemented and whether the final authority on token classification should belong to the SEC or CFTC. The third major issue unexpectedly involves President Trump’s family, which profited about $620 million from crypto projects; this conflict of interest could become a political attack point. The fourth major dispute is the CFTC’s personnel vacancy crisis, with institutional governance issues making proposals to expand its powers highly controversial.

Time Window: A Brutal Race Against the Midterm Elections

For crypto legislation, the 2026 calendar may be an even more formidable enemy than any policy disagreement. All legislative efforts must conform to a harsh political reality: the midterm election cycle. Industry policy leaders have clearly outlined this brief window: “We are focused on the first two quarters of 2026; after that, lawmakers will truly focus on election matters.” This means that both houses of Congress must complete coordination before spring and send the final version to the President for signing.

Another unresolved threat is the risk of a federal government shutdown. A temporary funding bill will sustain operations until January 30, 2026. If by then the two parties cannot reach an agreement, the government will shut down again, and all legislative work, including crypto bills, will be forced to pause.

Therefore, January 2026 becomes a crucial “barometer” month. If committees from both parties can quickly complete the “mark-up” process, it will send a strong positive signal. Conversely, the likelihood of the bill passing in 2026 will sharply decline.

Alternative Path: SEC’s “De-Regulation” Lightning Strike

While Congress struggles forward, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is carving out an alternative route. SEC Chair Gary Gensler has repeatedly publicly stated that he believes most tokens are not securities, and the SEC is leveraging its broad exemption powers to develop new guidelines for the industry. This “de-regulation lightning strike” has led some industry insiders to believe that even without congressional legislation, proactive actions by the SEC could provide enough market clarity, reducing the urgency of passing a complex law.

However, relying on administrative agencies rather than permanent legislation carries risks. Policies may change with government shifts, failing to provide the long-term stability and legal certainty that businesses crave.

Market Pulse: Price Outlook for Key Tokens in 2026

The fog of regulatory uncertainty directly impacts crypto market price volatility. Despite the uncertainty, mainstream assets showed resilience toward the end of 2025. Below are the latest data and outlooks for some key assets on the Gate platform as of December 30, 2025.

• Bitcoin: As the market leader, Bitcoin’s price experienced volatility at year-end. According to Gate market data, BTC/USDT is currently at $87,747.0. Looking ahead to 2026, whether the Market Structure Act becomes clear will directly influence institutional investment willingness, becoming a key variable in breaking the $100,000 psychological barrier.
• Ethereum: Ethereum recently briefly broke above $3,000. Gate data shows ETH/USDT at $2,976.29. In 2026, as its ecosystem continues to develop and potential ETF approvals progress, Ethereum’s performance will remain closely tied to the broader narrative of smart contract platforms.
• GateToken: As the core asset of the Gate ecosystem, GT’s price is closely related to platform development. Recent data shows GT at $10.31, up 0.48% in the past 24 hours. With new products like Gate Layer and Gate Perp DEX launching, demand for GT as the only gas token within the ecosystem is expected to continue rising, making its 2026 performance worth watching.

Gate’s Perspective: Moving Forward in Compliance and Innovation

Regardless of the legislative outcome in Washington, leading global crypto exchanges like Gate always prioritize compliance and user asset security. Gate not only keeps a close eye on global regulatory developments but also pioneers innovation in core areas such as asset security and decentralized trading through its self-developed GateChain public chain. Facing the upheaval of 2026, Gate is already prepared. By building a complete ecosystem including main chain, DEX, and wallets, Gate aims to provide users with a secure and efficient digital asset trading and management solution. This long-term infrastructure investment is the most solid foundation for coping with any short-term regulatory uncertainties.

When asked whether additional powers from Congress are still needed, SEC Chair Gensler once quoted a law from the 1930s with a meaningful tone: “We already have very broad authority… which gives us a very solid foundation.” Meanwhile, on the other side of the Pacific, Europe’s MiCA regulation came into effect in early 2025, and the UK and Australia have also set plans to introduce their own frameworks before 2027. The world’s attention is on Washington, but the world’s steps do not stop.

The battle over the Market Structure Act may not simply be a matter of “win or lose.” It is more like a mirror reflecting the long and complex coming-of-age process that an emerging industry must undergo to integrate into the traditional world order.