87% pricing “no change” isnt confidence - it’s resignation



Inflation hasn’t broken. Financial conditions haven’t eased enough.
Powell has zero incentive to blink early.

What’s interesting is the asymmetry:
everyone waiting for a cut, nobody positioned for disappointment.

If January passes with no move, the real reaction won’t be rates - it’ll be the unwind of all the “early pivot” narratives.

Markets don’t crash when news is bad.
They crack when hope expires quietly.
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