Bitcoin Faces a Crucial Week Ahead of the Annual Close

Source: CoinTribune Original Title: Bitcoin Faces a Crucial Week Ahead of the Annual Close Original Link: https://www.cointribune.com/en/imminent-annual-close-why-bitcoin-is-playing-very-big-this-week/ In a few hours, the crypto scene could experience one of its most symbolic turning points. Bitcoin, on the brink of the new year, seems to hesitate between a remake of a bullish tale or the start of an era of doubts. The magical breath of 2025 is slow to take effect, and if the ultimate annual candle turns red, we might have to wait until 2026 to dream again. For investors, this week is much more than a simple calendar transition: it is a tug of war between believers and the weary.

Bitcoin: The $90,000 Plays Hide-and-Seek

Can Bitcoin still close 2025 in the green? Already, the $90,000 level acts like a mirage. Briefly reached, it quickly gave way. Worse: this threshold fails to turn into solid support, leaving traders on edge. Record levels of options expired on Friday, creating expectations for significant volatility over the next few weeks.

Analysts envision a “drop” scenario toward $80,000 to capture liquidity, followed by a possible rebound to $100,000. Conversely, a break below $80,000 could derail BTC toward $72,000, a major resistance level turned potential support.

Meanwhile, the 20-day moving average at around $89,400 could trigger a bullish reversal if the price clings to it convincingly. The liquidation chart also indicates that leveraged positions could cause a series of jerky movements. In this chaos, other cryptos do not all have the luxury of hope: Ethereum stagnates, Solana wavers, and altcoins suffer a domino effect.

Crypto: Whales Swim Against the Current

As doubt invades timelines, another signal lights up analysts’ radars: major exchange whales quietly reload. BTC longs have reached record levels since Q1 2024, with whale long positions on BTC nearly hitting a two-year high. This signal serves as a compass.

In a cautious market, discreet accumulation by the “OG whales” acts as a bet on the future. Whale spot activity generally reflects long-term positions, unlike retail-driven rallies, emphasizing that market giants see beyond the current turbulence.

And yet, the mood is not euphoric. Short-term holders continue to sell at a loss, with realized loss volume reaching $300 million per day. Despite price stabilization above the market’s actual average, loss selling has not decreased significantly.

The End of a Cycle or the Beginning of Another?

With a historic peak of $126,200 in October, 2025 could have been written in gold letters. But a drop of nearly 40% since this peak leaves a bitter taste. Some wonder: are the famous 4-year cycles outdated? Can we still hope for a repeat of the past in a market that is changing its nature?

Unlike previous dips where corrections often reached -70% to -85%, the current pullback remains contained. Leverage has been purged, forced sales limited, and strong hands hold firm. From an on-chain perspective, this aligns with a market structure where forced selling has been more limited, leverage excess has been materially reduced compared to previous cycles, and long-term holder supply remains relatively resilient.

Yet all this unfolds in an uncertain macro context. Precious metals, on the other hand, are breaking the ceiling. The Bitcoin/silver ratio has dropped 67% since May, and the silver price has jumped +175% in 2025. Gold also flirts with highs.

Key Points to Remember

• Bitcoin is trading at $87,397 at the time of writing
• Major exchange whales hold their highest long positions in two years
• The daily realized loss volume exceeds $300 million
• The BTC/silver ratio has fallen to 1,104, its lowest since September 2023
• The expiration of $27 billion in options has revived volatility

An annual close in the red would be an unprecedented event for Bitcoin in a post-halving year. Some analysts suggest it would be a first in 14 years. The signal would be clear: a structural change is underway. Perhaps BTC will never evolve by the same rules again. For those hoping, it will take a bit more than fireworks this time.