The Federal Reserve's latest injection of $16 billion into liquidity is not an isolated event. Combined with recent on-chain monitoring data, the foundation for a new upward cycle is rapidly being laid.

Let's start with the macro perspective. The large-scale liquidity injection during the 312 pandemic triggered that bull market. Although this cycle's rhythm isn't exactly the same as back then, the underlying logic remains the same—once liquidity starts flowing in, asset prices will eventually follow. The loosening of the "waterproof valve" itself signals a policy shift, and such continuous actions are unlikely to be bluff.

Next, look at the actual on-chain movements. Institutions are quietly accumulating chips; large addresses holding Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to rise, but exchange balances are shrinking—what does this indicate? Smart money is locking in positions, waiting. The proportion of long-term holders is increasing, meaning the circulating chips are decreasing. Once buying pressure truly kicks in, it can easily create a liquidity vacuum-like surge.

The shorts are in a somewhat awkward position. The funding rate for perpetual contracts remains relatively stable, but short positions are heavily concentrated at high levels. If Bitcoin breaks through 43K and Ethereum surpasses 2.4K, these stop-loss orders will trigger a chain reaction, fueling the upward movement.

Short-term volatility may look intimidating, but don't be shaken out. The combination of liquidity expectations + chip locking + fragile shorts ensures the sustainability of the rally. My simple strategy: hold spot positions, add on dips.

In a bull market, making money isn't about frequent trading; it's about holding the right chips and patiently waiting for the wind to come.