#预测市场 Large project weeks are such high-profile moments that I've seen too many people with red eyes. Watching the launches of Upheaval, Yield Basis, and Limitless in this wave, with 870% oversubscription and hundreds of millions in FDV expectations... the familiar wealth effect narrative is back.

But I have to be honest: there are plenty of opportunities to buy in, but also many traps. Upheaval’s Bonding Curve pricing looks innovative, but do you know how harsh the price dilution effect is after oversubscription? And then there’s Tea’s 100% TGE unlock, where early testnet users who didn’t receive airdrops were suspected by the community of "possibly being a scam"—this is not baseless.

The most interesting part is the prediction market Limitless. A trading volume of 270 million sounds impressive, but not long ago it was accused of "manipulating trading volume." Plus, social media is flooded with mindless Yaps, which actually indicates the ecosystem is in a crazy growth phase. My usual advice is: projects with backing from funding, real revenue, or cash flow (like Goated’s GambleFi model) tend to have relatively manageable risks. But for those purely relying on hype and pretty whitepapers, I’ll skip even if the returns are high.

This wave of projects clustering together is actually a good opportunity to differentiate. Don’t be blinded by FOMO—ask yourself three questions first: Is the tokenomics reasonable? Is the team reliable? Does the ecosystem really need this? If you can’t answer these, don’t get on board. The wealth effect is real, but so is the bag-holder.