I recently came across an interesting perspective that seems to hit the core of the current market—Bitcoin's upward logic is undergoing a transformation.

The previous bull market playbook is well known: rely on attracting new users and spinning stories. Web3, metaverse, one concept after another. But this model is now failing. Why? The on-chain data makes it obvious.

Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have been steadily decreasing over the years. Especially after ETF approvals, the outflow speed has significantly increased. Where did the coins go? From short-term traders' wallets, they flowed into Wall Street institutions and large holders' cold wallets. Long-term holders' positions are approaching historical highs. Do you expect these people to dump? Unless it's doomsday.

This is similar to the gold story—central banks around the world gradually buy gold into national treasuries and lock it away. The gold available for circulation in the market actually decreases. Bitcoin is now following this path too, being bought by ETFs and major institutions as strategic assets. They think in terms of five or ten years, not the daily or weekly charts we play.

So, future market movements might not need any revolutionary new stories. The logic is actually very simple and brutal—demand (institutional steady buying, possibly even increasing) is gradually draining the supply (the circulating coins that are truly willing and able to sell). This is the classic supply contraction bull market.

Real change might happen quietly like this. When most people are still saying "no new concepts, no more upward movement," a small catalyst appears, and the market suddenly kicks off—because the market cap is already light enough, and chips are sufficiently concentrated.

So the strategy is straightforward: hold onto spot holdings, ignore short-term noise. The market is shifting from retail-driven narratives to institution-driven supply and demand. The big move might be brewing in the shadows.