2025-12-30 06:24:29

I've been pondering something lately.

Currently, the total supply of ZEC is about 16 million coins, which seems like a lot. But there's a frequently overlooked detail: nearly 30% of that, over 5 million coins, are locked in shielded addresses. These coins have extremely low liquidity and are hardly active in the market.

Calculating this way, the truly freely tradable ZEC—those that can be bought and sold at any time—is actually just over 10 million coins. And this number is still changing. The higher the price goes, the more scarce the willing sellers become.

As the price continues to rise, the "liquid coins" available for immediate transactions will be gradually drained from the market, and the exchange's available inventory will decrease rapidly. If the price really approaches $1000, I estimate the freely tradable volume might only be around 8 to 9 million coins.

By then, the spot reserves on exchanges? They might really only be a few hundred thousand coins left.

It seems the real squeezing effect is just beginning to show itself.

ZEC-3,18%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

7 Likes

Reward
7
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

LiquidityWitch

· 4h ago

Wow, I’ve never seriously calculated the coins in the blocked address section. Doing so, I realize ZEC liquidity isn’t that sufficient at all. Really, when it hits $1000 on the exchange, there will only be a few hundred thousand in spot holdings left? Back then, just one buy or sell order could move the market. I’m a bit scared. If this squeezing effect really happens, the market will become very volatile.

View OriginalReply0

ProveMyZK

· 16h ago

Damn, this logical chain is pretty impressive. I've heard the story of liquidity exhaustion too many times. Locking in chips is indeed easy to overlook, but when it really hits $1000, will the exchange only have a few hundred thousand coins left? That seems a bit exaggerated. Anyway, ZEC's privacy features guarantee that it will always have a loyal following. Its scarcity is real; whether the price goes up or not is another matter. This kind of analysis is helpful for short-term speculation; long-term holders don't really care. Will coins from blocked addresses really never come back, or is it just that the transfer cycle is particularly long? I'm optimistic about ZEC's underlying logic, but don't be brainwashed by the so-called "squeeze effect." The gradual decrease of active coins is a fact, but how likely is a liquidity crisis? Honestly, I'm not very sure.

View OriginalReply0

RunWhenCut

· 16h ago

Damn, I need to think about this logic carefully... 5 million coins locked and just gone like that? --- Wait, are you saying that only about 10 million are truly liquid? Then the exchange reserves must be overwhelmed... --- That's pretty intense, is this playing with fire or is the scarcity really showing? --- Hold on, do coins from blocked addresses really can't flow out? Is there a possibility... --- When the price hits 1000 USD, the exchange only has tens of thousands of spot holdings left, how will the buy orders be filled? The price would skyrocket. --- This chain of logic is so clear it's a bit scary, reminds me of that wave in 2020. --- So, whose fault is the blocked address? I've never really understood. --- Sigh... Looking at ZEC this way, it does seem to have some potential, but could it just be paper scarcity? --- Speaking of which, when the time comes, someone will definitely dump the market. I don't believe the market will stay so obedient. --- Active coins are being drained, how can buy orders absorb this? This chain just doesn't add up.

View OriginalReply0

MysteryBoxAddict

· 16h ago

Damn, I need to ponder this logic carefully. Does the 5 million coins in the blocked address mean they are permanently frozen? --- So the real scarcity is hidden here. No wonder big players have been quietly accumulating. --- Wait, if the spot holdings on exchanges are only a few hundred thousand, won't the price volatility skyrocket? --- Wow, isn't this a form of indirect deflation? No wonder everyone is paying attention to this. --- Coins locked in blocked addresses don't count as supply at all. The market has always underestimated this. --- When the price hits $1000, only $800 to $900 can be traded? I feel like it might be drained even earlier. --- This detail is so ruthless. Everyone's focusing on the total supply and ignoring liquidity. --- Is the squeezing effect just beginning? Then I need to reassess ZEC's scarcity premium.

View OriginalReply0

DiamondHands

· 16h ago

Oh wow, I haven't really thought much about the coins in the blocked addresses before. Feels like a new perspective has opened up. The logic behind ZEC does have some merit; the increasing scarcity of liquidity makes sense. But are there really only a few hundred thousand in spot on the exchanges? How many people would have to be FOMOing crazily to reach that point? It seems I need to reevaluate my own positions...

View OriginalReply0

FunGibleTom

· 16h ago

I’ve always said that the logic behind ZEC has never been fully understood; the address masking feature is really an invisible bomb. --- Wait, so only over ten million can actually be traded? The liquidity pressure is a bit outrageous. --- When the price hits $1000, there will only be a few hundred thousand in spot exchanges. By then, you probably won’t even be able to buy. --- Speaking of this address masking design, did the ZEC team have a plan all along? --- Interesting. It looks like there’s enough supply now, but secretly, it’s already in scarcity. --- No, why isn’t anyone talking about locking up 30%? That seems to be the real narrative. --- Is the squeezing effect just beginning? Then the price potential is really limitless.

View OriginalReply0

CodeAuditQueen

· 16h ago

This logic is somewhat similar to a reentrancy attack... superficially, liquidity appears sufficient, but the actual available "fund pool" is shrinking rapidly. If it really drops to that level, the risk of exchange order explosions is quite high.

View OriginalReply0