Bitcoin has been consolidating around $87,000 for a long time, and the market is full of speculation. But upon closer inspection, this stalemate actually masks a silent liquidity game between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve.

On the surface, Bitcoin's ability to stay above $80,000 relies on market expectations of "ample future liquidity." However, subtle changes are underway. The Fed chair candidate favored by Trump, though labeled as "dovish," actually aims to reallocate monetary power—gradually shifting decision-making authority over interest rates and liquidity from the Fed to the Treasury. This transfer of power will inevitably lead to a restructuring of the market pricing system, presenting both risks and opportunities.

Regarding the Federal Reserve? While markets are betting on a rate cut in December, the real focus should be on the balance sheet movements. Institutions generally expect a "short-term debt purchase" program to start next year, which sounds like balance sheet expansion but is actually a technical adjustment amid a broader backdrop of overall liquidity tightening. Recently, Bitcoin and gold have rarely moved in tandem downward, signaling a dangerous warning—the market liquidity is tightening systematically.

At the institutional level, the picture is even more complex. On one hand, leading exchanges and strategic funds continue to increase their holdings, indicating that long-term confidence remains intact. On the other hand, in the past two months, there has been about $4 billion in net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs. This isn't traditional "investor exit," but rather a structural selling pressure caused by basis trading and leveraged strategies being forced to close positions. The confrontation of these two forces has created a current deadlock.

From an operational perspective, key levels are worth noting. A drop below $85,000 could trigger a larger chain of liquidations. Conversely, breaking above $89,000 might mean short-term pressure is relieved. The current advice is: maintain a light position and wait, rather than risking a wrong move just to catch opportunities; focus on these two critical levels; and most importantly, in a period of policy uncertainty, surviving is always more important than chasing quick profits.

Consolidation will eventually be broken, but before that moment arrives, the most important thing is to see clearly—who is quietly pulling liquidity out of the market?