Bitcoin Historical Price and Returns Analysis: Should I Buy Bitcoin Now?

Abstract

This article provides a comprehensive review of Bitcoin’s historical price movements and market volatility since its inception, analyzing both bull and bear market phases through quantitative data. It evaluates the potential returns from purchasing 10 Bitcoin at various market cycles and addresses the critical question: “Should I buy Bitcoin now?” This analysis aims to equip both novice and long-term investors with insights into optimal entry points and growth potential.

Early Market Formation and Initial Cycles: Historical Price Review (2013 to 2017)

Bitcoin was conceptualized by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008, with the open-source software and P2P network subsequently developed based on Nakamoto’s design. According to CoinMarketCap records, Bitcoin’s earliest recorded trading price was approximately $92.50 in 2013.

The following represents Bitcoin’s price performance during the early bull market phase:

2013

• Opening Price: $92.50
• Closing Price: $905.36
• Highest Price: $955.00
• Lowest Price: $73.98
• Annual Return: 878.77%

2014

• Opening Price: $842.10
• Closing Price: $264.19
• Highest Price: $842.10
• Lowest Price: $264.19
• Annual Return: -68.63%

2015

• Opening Price: $267.27
• Closing Price: $428.39
• Highest Price: $442.62
• Lowest Price: $211.03
• Annual Return: 60.28%

2016

• Opening Price: $449.35
• Closing Price: $998.99
• Highest Price: $998.99
• Lowest Price: $365.52
• Annual Return: 122.32%

2017

• Opening Price: $915.90
• Closing Price: $13,730.39
• Highest Price: $18,913.33
• Lowest Price: $820.74
• Annual Return: 1,399.11%

An investor who purchased 10 Bitcoin during the early bull market phase in 2013 would have realized potential gains of $871,125 if liquidated today.

Bear Market Correction and Medium-Term Cycles: Returns and Risk Analysis (2018 to 2021)

During this period, Bitcoin experienced significant price volatility, marked by substantial corrections in 2018 followed by recovery phases. The market was influenced by regulatory developments, institutional adoption signals, and macroeconomic factors.

The following represents potential returns for investors who purchased 10 Bitcoin during various phases of this cycle:

• 2018: $711,139.70
• 2019: $837,279.80
• 2020: $790,243.50
• 2021: $490,249.20

2018

• Opening Price: $16,091.03
• Closing Price: $3,985.00
• Highest Price: $16,091.03
• Lowest Price: $3,224.66
• Annual Return: -75.23%

2019

• Opening Price: $3,477.02
• Closing Price: $7,360.21
• Highest Price: $11,534.25
• Lowest Price: $3,460.00
• Annual Return: 111.68%

2020

• Opening Price: $8,180.65
• Closing Price: $33,004.14
• Highest Price: $33,004.14
• Lowest Price: $5,360.46
• Annual Return: 303.44%

2021

• Opening Price: $38,180.08
• Closing Price: $47,296.37
• Highest Price: $65,498.50
• Lowest Price: $31,778.38
• Annual Return: 23.88%

Recent Market Cycles: Should I Buy Bitcoin Now? (2022 to 2025)

In recent years, Bitcoin has experienced renewed volatility with significant price appreciation in 2023 and 2024, prompting market participants to debate whether a new bull cycle has commenced or if the market remains subject to cyclical pressures.

2022

• Opening Price: $41,860.17
• Closing Price: $16,617.50
• Highest Price: $46,834.10
• Lowest Price: $16,285.50
• Annual Return: -60.30%

2023

• Opening Price: $17,127.70
• Closing Price: $42,285.40
• Highest Price: $43,785.60
• Lowest Price: $17,127.70
• Annual Return: 146.88%

2024

• Opening Price: $43,925.90
• Closing Price: $98,357.40
• Highest Price: $104,438.90
• Lowest Price: $41,582.00
• Annual Return: 123.92%

2025 (Year-to-Date)

• Opening Price: $94,547.70
• Closing Price: $87,205.00
• Highest Price: $123,476.50
• Lowest Price: $78,412.40
• Annual Return: -7.77%

Investors who purchased 10 Bitcoin during the most recent cycles would observe the following potential returns:

• 2022: $453,448.30
• 2023: $700,773.00
• 2024: $432,791.00
• 2025 (Year-to-Date): -$73,427.00

Summary: Bull Markets, Bear Markets, and Investment Timing Analysis

Through comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin’s historical price movements and potential returns across market cycles, a distinct pattern emerges of cyclical bull and bear phases interspersed with periods of consolidation. The data reveals that while Bitcoin has demonstrated extraordinary long-term appreciation potential for early adopters, recent volatility—particularly the -7.77% decline year-to-date in 2025—underscores the importance of timing and risk tolerance in investment decisions. Prospective investors evaluating whether to purchase Bitcoin at current levels should carefully consider their investment horizon, risk capacity, and entry point relative to the broader market cycle context.