There's a saying that’s quite true—numbers will scream. When Ethereum's 4-hour RSI drops to 21.1, the sound becomes impossible to ignore.

This morning, I was watching the ETH-USDT chart, and when I saw this data, I almost spilled my coffee. As a trader who experienced the 2021 run-up to $4,800 and the 2022 bear market bottom at $900, I’ve seen such extreme readings many times. But each one deserves serious attention.

Currently, the price is stuck at $2,947. The daily chart clearly shows a downtrend, but the 4-hour chart has triggered the seventh oversold alert since 2008. Quantum physicist Bohr once said something I strongly agree with—"Prediction is difficult, especially predicting the future." But that doesn’t mean we can’t find patterns in history.

**The True Story Behind the RSI Data**

The value of 21.1 is indeed eye-catching, but we need to look at what history says. From 2022 to now, Ethereum's 4-hour RSI has fallen below 25 a total of 13 times. What was the result of those 9 times? A rebound of over 5% within the next 48 hours.

But here’s a twist—another 4 times, there was no immediate rebound; instead, it continued to fall by 3-8% before finding a bottom. So extreme oversold conditions do not necessarily mean a rebound, but they do increase the probability of one.

**A Tug of War Between Two Technical Factors**

The current situation is quite interesting. The daily level still points downward, but the 4-hour level has already reached an extreme. It’s like a tug of war where neither side is relaxing—short-term technical signals are completely at odds with the medium-term trend. This often leads to market reversals, but which way it will turn is really uncertain.