#数字资产市场动态 Recently, the US economic data was released, and the third quarter GDP annualized growth rate soared to 4.3%, climbing from 3.8% in the second quarter. This is the fastest growth in two years, catching many analysts off guard—consumer spending was particularly strong, with expenditures in healthcare, travel, and technology increasing by 3.5%, and exports rebounded by 8.8%.

However, problems are also emerging. Real estate investment declined by 5.1%, employment growth has started to slow, and the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.3%. More concerning is that experts are beginning to warn that the economy may cool down in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the temporary suspension of government project spending. If tariffs continue to increase, growth expectations for 2026 could be halved to 1.5%-2%.

This sends a clear message to the Federal Reserve—when the economy performs so strongly, they have less reason to rush to cut interest rates. The hotter the data, the more confidence there is in maintaining high rates. The market’s illusions of loose liquidity are gradually being shattered by these real data.

In the short term, economic resilience may support the performance of risk assets; in the medium term, the market will need to reprice the "higher and longer" interest rate expectations; in the long term, uncertainties in tariff policies and growth prospects remain.

Interestingly, the data in front of us presents a paradox—strong growth on the surface, but underlying signals of slowdown. Smart traders and investors are pondering this question: is the current economic performance the final glory of the cycle, or the true beginning of a new phase? The answer may be hidden in the next report.