2025-12-29 17:25:49

Recently, analysts have suggested that the cryptocurrency market is repeating a typical "post-peak year" decline pattern. According to this logic, the true bottom of the bear market may not occur until next year.

Specifically, the most optimistic expectation is that the market will bottom out by May 2026, but if we look at previous complete bear cycles (which usually extend to a year), the bottom might be delayed until October. However, before that, the market is likely to experience a wave of "reverse squeeze" in early 2026. Sounds tempting, but such bear market rebounds are often traps—when the short positions are gradually exhausted and the market is overwhelmingly bearish, a sudden rebound can easily lead people to believe the bull market has returned, when in fact it’s just a "higher low."

This cycle is somewhat different from previous ones. The 2017 and 2021 peak celebrations are no longer happening; today’s market resembles 2019 more—calm replacing frenzy. Moreover, you'll notice that Bitcoin’s rhythm is closely tied to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Bitcoin peaked a few months before the end of QT (quantitative tightening) in 2019, and it seems to be repeating the same story now.

For those looking to position in altcoins, there’s a key perspective: instead of focusing on USD prices, pay more attention to the exchange rates of these tokens against Bitcoin. For example, projects like Solana, when valued in BTC, can better illustrate the situation.

BTC-2,62%

SOL-3,07%

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nft_widow

· 13h ago

Once again, the bottom is expected to wait until next year... Bro, I've heard this kind of talk for three years now. Trap rebounds are indeed annoying, but what I fear more is that analysts themselves haven't figured out the direction. The fact that BTC is tied to the Federal Reserve, we've seen through that a long time ago. The key is to watch SOL's movement relative to BTC; that's the real signal. Wait, October 2026? How much longer do I have to wait before I can go all in?

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OfflineValidator

· 13h ago

Wait, do we really have to wait until October 2026? Will the copycat I buy now still be alive then? Haha

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GasWrangler

· 13h ago

honestly if you're still timing the bottom in usd prices you're already losing — technically speaking, the btc ratio is where the actual signal lives. altcoins measured against eth or sol denominated pairs are just noise masking the real data. empirically proven across multiple cycles.

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RektHunter

· 13h ago

It's the same "wait until next year to see the bottom" story again, I said this last year too haha. Another round of the trapped logic framework, let's see how many people will buy in during the rebound in early 26. Following the Federal Reserve's moves with BTC has been obvious for a while now. Looking at how altcoins perform against BTC is indeed more reliable than their USD prices. October 2026? Then how long do I have to keep eating dirt? I've fallen into this bear market trap more than once. Every time, they say "a higher high," but then a snake bites you once, and you're afraid of well ropes for ten years. No doubt about that, but predictive ability... you know what I mean.

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HodlOrRegret

· 13h ago

It's the same story again... I've heard the reverse squeeze trap countless times, but the key question is, who dares to buy the dip when it actually happens? --- Wait, October 2026? Should I keep lying low now or do something? Please advise. --- No matter how nicely you put it, one fact remains — no one can accurately predict the bottom. --- Listening to you, the real thing to watch is SOL's BTC price; the USD price is just virtual. --- Trap, trap. Every time it's called a trap, but whether it falls or rebounds, is it interesting? --- Replaying 2019? Then we better review who survived back then. --- A dull market is actually more dangerous; when no one is paying attention, that's often the opportunity. --- The real question is what the Federal Reserve will do next—that's the trump card.

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