Yesterday, the "experts" were still hyping ETH to plummet to 1800, and today they’re suddenly shouting to push it to 4000—really, I almost want to use my face as a leather belt. I was so angry I almost threw my phone, these people change their tune faster than anyone in the industry. The most ridiculous part is, I actually used to believe in their "deep analysis." It wasn’t until I started using a certain on-chain data dashboard that I realized: reliable market signals are not in those big mouths, but hidden in the real on-chain data from exchanges, wallets, and contracts.

Why are 99% of market analyses out there garbage?

I had some free time, so I compiled the accuracy rates of the most popular analysts over the past three months, and the results were eye-opening:

- Short-term predictions within 3 days — 31% accuracy
- Mid-term predictions at 1 month — 19% accuracy
- Long-term predictions at 3 months — 42% accuracy (in other words, just guessing right)

What’s the irony? If they get it wrong, it’s called "the market exceeded expectations"; if they guess right once, they’re ready to hype it as a historic breakthrough. And us retail investors? We chase these false signals around, only to find our accounts shriveled up like bamboo poles.

How to switch from "guessing whether prices will go up or down" to "reading real data"?

Old routine—look at candlestick charts, listen to rumors, imagine the logic of big players. New approach—directly monitor the real on-chain data movements.

Take ETH’s recent rebound as an example. That night, ETH had a nice rally. I opened the data dashboard and immediately saw the clues:

— Smart money transferred to exchanges for three consecutive days, indicating big players are quietly building positions
— ETH balances on exchanges dropped to the lowest in a year and a half, retail holdings being drained by "vampires"
— Short contract positions clustered at one point, risking being "sandwiched"
— Cross-chain bridge traffic on Layer 2 surged 47%, ecosystem funds actively flowing

These data points don’t lie—they tell you the market is "building strength," not some influencer blowing smoke. Can it be the same feeling as listening to a prediction guru say "I’m bullish on ETH"? Not at all. One is a chain of solid evidence, the other is just brain guesswork.

Does decision-making based on data really change your trading life?

Honestly, after a few weeks of doing this, my mindset has become much more stable. Why? Because you’re no longer hostage to the rollercoaster emotions of those "big V" predictions. When others say it’s going up, you chase; when they say it’s going down, you cut. Living like a puppet to market sentiment. Once you start reading on-chain data, it’s like installing a "market telescope"—you can see fund flows, position structures, and ecosystem dynamics that retail investors can’t.

Most importantly, data is fair to everyone. Whether you’re a newbie or a seasoned veteran, the data is right there, reflecting the market’s true state from 12 different angles. Where is the smart money? Where are the funds flowing? Are contract shorts piling up? Is the ecosystem declining or booming? The answers are all hidden on-chain—you just need to learn how to read it.

Now my strategy has changed. No longer being led by predictions, I verify with on-chain data—what stage is the market in? How are the fund flows? Where are the risks? The answers guide my next move.

Are you tired of being brainwashed by "expert predictions"? Why not try making decisions based on real data? Maybe your account won’t become an instant millionaire, but at least you won’t get wiped out by noise.