2025-12-29 15:29:16

On-chain data from a leading prediction market is quite interesting. After analyzing over 1.7 million participating addresses, it was found that only about 30% of addresses are profitable, in other words, 70% of traders are losing money.

Looking at those who are profitable: most of them are not earning much, with profit ranges concentrated between $0 and $1,000. To enter the Top 4.9% of profitable traders, one needs to earn over $1,000. The most extreme case is the top performers—less than 0.04% of addresses account for over 70% of the market’s realized profits.

This data is quite typical: a few people make big money, while the majority make small amounts or lose money. Prediction markets also follow the 80/20 rule.

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DataChief

· 15h ago

70% of people lose money... That's why I advise friends not to play prediction markets recklessly --- 0.04% of addresses take 70% of the profits, truly the cultivation of elites from among the leeks --- It's the same old trick again, the top eats the meat while the bottom drinks the soup, no matter where you go --- Making over 1000 is considered a winner? Then my small amount of money is really just for fun --- The 80/20 rule also fails on the chain, it seems this is just fate --- I just want to know how that 0.04% of people did it... Any secrets, everyone? --- 170 million addresses, 70% lose money, this success rate is even worse than flipping a coin --- Most of the 30% profit-makers can't even make a thousand dollars, might as well do some DeFi trades --- Prediction markets, the longer you play, the more you lose, right? --- The top players' harvest perfectly illustrates what "winner takes all" means

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RugDocScientist

· 15h ago

70% losing money, this data sounds painful... I guess I'm also in this 70%. Yeah, that 0.04% at the top took 70% of the profits. Why not just grab it directly? Are prediction market players really that miserable? Might as well go bet on horses. That's why I only watch now and don't trade anymore. It's too devilish. What does 0.04% mean? A few thousand addresses? That's too concentrated. By the way, has anyone really made money from prediction markets? Don't lie to me. You need to earn over $1000 to be in the top 4.9%? Damn, that's a high threshold.

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zkProofGremlin

· 15h ago

70% of people lose money? I am one of that 70% haha --- Less than 0.04% took 70% of the profits, this move is absolutely brilliant --- So, entering the prediction market is just to give big players money --- This data is heartbreaking... I haven't even seen my 1000 bucks yet --- It's the 80/20 rule again, Pareto principle... Forget it, I better not play anymore --- How did the top 0.04% do it? Teach me please --- Make a few hundred dollars and secretly celebrate, it's basically impossible to make big gains --- Making $1000 a month or being wiped out to zero, it's just one decision away --- Damn, this data is really terrifying, I feel like I'm about to become cannon fodder --- Prediction markets are really the most severe place of wealth disparity

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MetaNomad

· 15h ago

70% of people lose money, this is outrageous... feels like I'm back to being one of that 70% The top 0.04% takes 70% of the profits, how do you play this game? Can't even make $1,000 to get into the top club, it's pretty tough Market prediction is similar to gambling, still relies on information advantage It's the 80/20 rule again, always a game where only a few make money These stats are heartbreaking, feels like most people are just running alongside Less than a thousand dollars is considered a small win? Then I need to work harder

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TokenomicsTrapper

· 15h ago

lmao so 0.04% eating 70% of gains... actually if you read the contract mechanics, textbook greater fool theory playing out on-chain. called this months ago tbh

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CounterIndicator

· 15h ago

70% loss is not surprising at all; predicting the market is just an upgraded version of a casino, where big fish eat small fish. The top 0.04% addresses take 70% of the profits? Now that's the real game rule. I just want to ask, is the $1000 threshold real, or is survivor bias at play? Calculate your own returns and realize you're just cannon fodder between 0-1000, which hurts a bit. The 80/20 rule will never go out of style; as long as people participate, being harvested is unavoidable.

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