The market crashed right at the open. Bitcoin dropped over a thousand points in just one hour, followed by Ethereum plunging downward, with the screen constantly in red.
My several trading groups are completely in chaos today. Should I clear my positions or hold on? Newcomers are getting trapped immediately after entering the market. Is a bear market coming? These questions fill the chat box, and the anxious emotions can be felt through the screen. Many people are staring at their phones, dazed at the holdings interface, even considering closing all positions with one click.
But if you've been paying attention to my analysis, you would know that half a month ago I warned — liquidity is approaching a correction. This "stock and bond double kill" is not a sudden black swan, let alone the arrival of a bear market. Follow these two logical lines below, and you'll see clearly, even find good opportunities for low buy-ins.
**Liquidity is being systematically drained; the fundamentals are actually not bad**
Imagine the market as a fish tank filled with water. Now someone is using a high-power water pump to extract water. The fish are thrashing around fiercely, but the problem isn't the fish quality itself; it's that the external environment has suddenly changed.
The U.S. Treasury's funds account (TGA) was nearly depleted some time ago, with the balance approaching a low of $50 billion. To stop the bleeding, the government not only halted previous liquidity injections into the market but also urgently sold over a hundred billion dollars worth of bonds to withdraw cash.
What does this mean? It’s like installing a super powerful bloodsucker directly into the market, forcibly sucking out over a hundred billion in liquidity.
Digital assets and tech stocks rely on incremental capital — without a continuous inflow of new money, valuations lack support. Now that the money has been diverted to fill government debt gaps, once the "funds siphoning" starts, high-risk assets immediately become targets for collective selling. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets most sensitive to liquidity are naturally the first to be affected.
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SchrodingersFOMO
· 17h ago
Oh my god, it's the liquidity problem again. Basically, it means there's no money left, don't pretend it's some black swan.
This wave is really intense. I was still bragging yesterday, and today I got completely screwed. But on the other hand, isn't this actually a good opportunity to get in?
Wait, you warned about this half a month ago? Why do I remember you saying the opposite...
Newbies must be freaking out right now. Can a one-click close position save their lives? Instead of stressing over this, it's better to study how to hedge.
The depletion point of TGA is quite good; it seems there is indeed a fundamental logic supporting it. But the question is, when will it rebound? It can't keep bleeding forever, right?
View OriginalReply0
ApeWithNoFear
· 12-29 15:56
Here we go again with this routine? I didn't see any warnings about liquidity half a month ago, and now that it has dropped, you're coming out to explain? This pattern is all too familiar.
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TokenomicsDetective
· 12-29 15:55
Ah, it's the same old story of liquidity draining, really tired of hearing it.
Talking about TGA and capital siphoning again, as if it's a certainty.
Break below quickly to buy the dip—is this really a low buy or just another wave of leek harvesting?
This round isn't as bad as I expected, mainly a mindset issue.
Those who warned half a month ago, who really nailed the timing is the true skill.
View OriginalReply0
ApeShotFirst
· 12-29 15:54
Coming back with this again? Why didn't I see the warning from half a month ago? Or is it because I was scrolling too fast haha
View OriginalReply0
AlphaWhisperer
· 12-29 15:45
It's the TGA set again. I heard about it half a month ago. Can we really buy the dip this time?
View OriginalReply0
RektRecovery
· 12-29 15:45
ngl, called this exact liquidity squeeze like two weeks ago... classic TGA bleed pattern nobody wants to admit til it's too late
Reply0
NFTragedy
· 12-29 15:43
Here comes the fish tank discussion again. Is the TGA account depletion the work of the black hand this time? Wake up, the crypto world always has stories to tell.
The market crashed right at the open. Bitcoin dropped over a thousand points in just one hour, followed by Ethereum plunging downward, with the screen constantly in red.
My several trading groups are completely in chaos today. Should I clear my positions or hold on? Newcomers are getting trapped immediately after entering the market. Is a bear market coming? These questions fill the chat box, and the anxious emotions can be felt through the screen. Many people are staring at their phones, dazed at the holdings interface, even considering closing all positions with one click.
But if you've been paying attention to my analysis, you would know that half a month ago I warned — liquidity is approaching a correction. This "stock and bond double kill" is not a sudden black swan, let alone the arrival of a bear market. Follow these two logical lines below, and you'll see clearly, even find good opportunities for low buy-ins.
**Liquidity is being systematically drained; the fundamentals are actually not bad**
Imagine the market as a fish tank filled with water. Now someone is using a high-power water pump to extract water. The fish are thrashing around fiercely, but the problem isn't the fish quality itself; it's that the external environment has suddenly changed.
The U.S. Treasury's funds account (TGA) was nearly depleted some time ago, with the balance approaching a low of $50 billion. To stop the bleeding, the government not only halted previous liquidity injections into the market but also urgently sold over a hundred billion dollars worth of bonds to withdraw cash.
What does this mean? It’s like installing a super powerful bloodsucker directly into the market, forcibly sucking out over a hundred billion in liquidity.
Digital assets and tech stocks rely on incremental capital — without a continuous inflow of new money, valuations lack support. Now that the money has been diverted to fill government debt gaps, once the "funds siphoning" starts, high-risk assets immediately become targets for collective selling. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets most sensitive to liquidity are naturally the first to be affected.