Recently, the market has really been quite a rollercoaster.

Bitcoin soared to a high of $126,000 in October and then plummeted to $87,000, dropping over thirty percent in a short period. During this decline, leveraged positions were liquidated close to $1 billion, and the market was in chaos. Meanwhile, gold and silver, these old-school assets, have been climbing steadily, prompting many traditional institutions to declare, "Bitcoin is no longer viable; gold is more reliable." The market fear index once soared to extreme fear levels, with retail investors wailing everywhere, many of whom sold off at a loss and fled.

But is this decline truly a sign of a fundamental collapse? I don't think so.

**The logic behind the decline is actually quite clear**

This correction, to put it simply, is the result of a double blow from tightening macro liquidity and high internal leverage. Expectations of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates have surfaced, the Federal Reserve's rate cut timetable has been pushed back, and the US dollar is appreciating globally. High-risk assets naturally became the first to be abandoned. Plus, the $19 billion leverage liquidation in October still has residual effects. The market structure itself is fragile, and even a small disturbance can trigger chain reactions of forced liquidations.

But there's a detail worth noting—institutions haven't been retreating en masse during this decline. On the contrary, some sovereign funds started accumulating at the lows. Although ETF funds have been flowing out, ETFs for XRP and ETH have continued to see net inflows. What does this indicate? Funds are not fleeing cryptocurrencies but are reallocating their positions. The structure is changing, but the overall trend remains intact.

**You need to see through the hype around altcoins**

At this stage, altcoins are prone to a quick surge. With no clear market leader, capital tends to chase small-cap tokens for short-term trading. Tokens like TRUMP and MELANIA have fallen over 90% from their highs, yet they can sometimes rally again. But only those who are quick and willing to take profits can profit from this kind of market. If you chase the highs blindly, you're basically setting yourself up for a loss.

From my perspective, most of the sharply rising altcoins now are riding on some news or community hype for a quick spike, then going quiet again. Short-term gains are possible, but as participation increases, risks grow exponentially. You need to know when to enter and, more importantly, when to exit.

**Overall impression**

Although this market turbulence is fierce, from a capital flow perspective, it’s not a systemic panic. Institutions are bottom-fishing, retail investors are selling at a loss, and this difference itself contains opportunities. The key is that these opportunities are not in those skyrocketing altcoins but in understanding the underlying capital flows and market structure changes. Be cautious when needed, hold firm when required—don’t be timid.