The recent rally in gold can be clearly divided into three stages. The initial move was from 1809 to 2449, followed by a second wave from 2286 to 2790, and finally a direct surge from 2536 to 3500 to complete the third wave.

Among these, the third wave saw the most aggressive increase, but after reaching 3500, the market entered a few months of oscillation. During this period, investors frequently rotated positions, some chose to exit, while new funds continuously entered the market.

Now, the trend has entered the fourth phase, and the key level of 3500 has been officially broken through. Why have financial products in recent years been able to sustain such strong trend movements? Ultimately, it’s due to hedge fund CTA strategies and algorithmic trading going wild. Once the price breaks through an important technical threshold, algorithmic programs automatically increase positions, amplifying the move and pushing prices higher. Last Friday’s non-farm payroll data release was particularly obvious—those millisecond-level high-frequency trades simply cannot be manually executed. Moreover, non-farm data can easily create liquidity vacuums, and manual orders are more likely to be swept away.

From this logic, 3600 is likely just a minor station in the process, not the final destination. If there is a brief pullback next week, the upward trend will continue. It’s a joke that after finally breaking through months of resistance, the market only gained 100 dollars; this also doesn’t match the characteristics of a trend’s late stage. According to the target projection method, the next medium-term resistance zone for gold should be between 3800 and 4200. Whether it can form a long-term resistance depends on whether the accumulated positions around 3300 can be effectively broken down.

Any financial asset follows cyclical laws—there are bull markets and bear markets. Gold is no exception; historical cycles since 1980 have fully validated this.