Copying Polymarket's bot strategy? In the long run, it's mostly a losing proposition.

This is not alarmist talk, but because most retail investors simply do not have the prerequisites for these bots to be profitable.

Let's look at a phenomenon: there are many highly-rated bots on Polymarket, and their single-trade win rate doesn't look impressive—some are even around 50%. Yet, they can still generate long-term profits. How is that possible?

The secret lies here: making money is not fundamentally about the accuracy of directional judgment. Bots win elsewhere. Most people only see the surface-level wins and losses but fail to notice that behind the scenes, factors like capital management, risk hedging, and market liquidity utilization are the decisive elements. A strategy with a 50% win rate, combined with proper position sizing and risk control, can still outperform most traders who rely on intuition. But for retail investors to truly learn this, it's not that simple.