Is Bitcoin entering a bear market? What do mainstream institutions say?

On December 20, 2025, two major institutions in the crypto industry released reports both indicating a bearish outlook for the crypto market. The specific content and reasons are as follows:

CryptoQuant: The bear market may have already begun, with a medium-term support level estimated at $70,000

On December 20, the on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant released a report stating that Bitcoin demand growth has significantly slowed, potentially signaling an upcoming bear market. Since 2023, Bitcoin has experienced three major spot demand waves—driven by the launch of US spot ETFs, the US presidential election results, and the Bitcoin treasury company bubble—but since early October 2025, demand growth has fallen below trend levels. This indicates that most of the new demand in this cycle has already been realized, and the key support pillars for price have disappeared.

On the other hand, the derivatives market also confirms a weakening risk appetite: the funding rate of perpetual futures (365-day moving average) has fallen to its lowest level since December 2023. Historically, this decline reflects a reduced willingness to maintain long positions, a pattern typically seen in bear markets rather than bull markets.

From a technical perspective, the price structure has deteriorated with weakening demand: Bitcoin has broken below its 365-day moving average, a critical long-term technical support level that has historically marked the boundary between bull and bear markets.

However, the downside reference points suggest the bear market may be relatively mild: historical data shows that Bitcoin’s bear market bottom is roughly aligned with its realized price, currently near $56,000, implying a potential retracement of up to 55% from recent all-time highs—representing the smallest decline in history. The medium-term support level is estimated around $70,000.

Tom Lee’s fund analyst: Bitcoin may fall to $60,000–$65,000 in the first half of 2026; Ethereum may drop to $1,800–$2,000

On December 20, Sean Farrell, Head of Crypto Strategy at Fundstrat, a fund founded by Tom Lee, stated in the “2026 Cryptocurrency Outlook” report, “Although I believe Bitcoin and the entire crypto market still have strong long-term bullish factors, and liquidity-driven support is expected to emerge in 2026, we may still need to digest several risks in Q1/Q2 2026, which could present more attractive entry points.

My baseline view is: there will be a noticeable decline in the first half of 2026. Bitcoin could fall to $60,000–$65,000, Ethereum could drop to $1,800–$2,000, and SOL could decline to $50–$75. These levels will provide good opportunities for positioning before the end of the year. If this judgment proves wrong, I remain more inclined to maintain a defensive stance, waiting for confirmation signals of a trend reversal. Bitcoin’s year-end target is around $115,000, and Ethereum’s year-end target could reach $4,500.

Within this framework, ETH’s relative strength will become even more prominent. I believe this is reasonable because Ethereum has more favorable structural capital flow characteristics, including: no miner sell pressure, unaffected by MSTR-related factors, and relatively lower concerns about quantum risks.