The wave of collective bullish predictions at the beginning of 2025 is a bit awkward—currently, the market's expectations for where Bitcoin could go next year have become more realistic. However, based on the voices from various sources that have already been released, the majority still lean towards bullishness, just with more solid reasoning.

Heavyweight institutions like Tom Lee, Standard Chartered, Bernstein, JPMorgan, and Citigroup have recently provided price range forecasts for 2026, generally centered between $150,000 and $250,000. These numbers are not pulled out of thin air; they are supported by several clear logical chains.

First is the expansion expectation of institutional funds. Large institutions are still increasing their allocations, but their actions are more cautious yet more determined this time. Second is the continued inflow of funds into spot ETFs—a major factor—this wave that pushed prices higher last year is still ongoing this year. The last key variable is regulatory clarity. Improved policy expectations directly reduce the risk weight for institutions, which is crucial for large-scale allocation decisions.

Industry observers like Arthur Hayes and IOSG also view the situation within this framework, each focusing on different aspects but sharing a common overall direction. From the collective misjudgment at the start of the year to the current cautious optimism, the market is indeed learning how to view these predictions more rationally.