2025-12-29 07:27:43

In the past month, Bitcoin has been oscillating, and the underlying market data has shown some interesting divergence.

CME's BTC futures open interest has dropped from $12.5 billion to $10 billion. Such a significant decline is no small matter. Meanwhile, a major platform has been consistently trading at a negative premium, and Bitcoin spot ETF experienced net outflows throughout December. The futures-spot basis has also been narrowing—these signals all point in the same direction: US-based institutions are clearly in a deleveraging and exit phase as the year ends.

While institutions are running, the market structure on the other side is undergoing change. Over the course of a month, the data from different channels shows increasingly obvious differences, reflecting a deepening divergence among current market participants.

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SchroedingersFrontrun

· 01-01 07:16

Are institutions still running while retail investors are still sleepwalking? This is the key. --- CME lost 2.5 billion... The net outflow this time is really a big sell-off. --- So now is it the bottom for buying in or just continuing to lag behind? --- With such deep divergence, how can there still be people calling for a bottom... Are you really buying at the bottom? --- I haven't felt the net outflow for the whole December, in fact, I even lost money. --- It seems like institutions are quietly getting off the train, while we're still waiting on the sidelines. --- What does it mean when the basis narrows? Does anyone know? --- Is this the last chance for retail investors to get on board? --- The more fragmented the chain, the harder it is to understand. Sometimes, this happens.

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SchrodingersFOMO

· 01-01 01:26

Institutions are liquidating their positions while retail investors are bottom-fishing—that's the current battlefield. CME has dropped so much, and you're still saying it's fine? You should be cautious when the basis narrows. Wait, is the negative premium still ongoing? Then why do some people still dare to chase the highs?

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staking_gramps

· 2025-12-31 15:30

Institutions run away, retail investors' blood and tears... 12.5 billion was poured in and then pulled back. I really can't understand this wave. Do I need to learn about negative premium again? Anyway, it's just a decline. The differentiation in the chain is deep... To put it simply, some people know something we don't.

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consensus_whisperer

· 2025-12-30 22:57

Institutional exit is considered normal operation; the problem is retail investors still taking the bait. This market is quite outrageous.

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MoodFollowsPrice

· 2025-12-29 07:57

Institutions run away and retail investors are left holding the bag. This trick is as old as it gets. Big institutions finish their cut and then run, while we're still holding on here. When CME slid to $10 billion, I knew something was going to happen, and sure enough. Negative premium is basically a signal that institutions are clearing out their positions. Wait, so should we continue holding the spot assets we have?

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NftDeepBreather

· 2025-12-29 07:57

The institution's run really leaves no room this time; losing $2.5 billion on CME directly shows the pressure. Wait, this negative premium has persisted for so long... something's not right. Retail investors are bottom-fishing, while institutions are exiting at the peak. The contrast is incredible.

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IronHeadMiner

· 2025-12-29 07:57

It's so obvious that the institution ran away, how come there are still people willing to jump in... The persistent negative premium has been going on for so long, it's really a bit tense.

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GateUser-4745f9ce

· 2025-12-29 07:43

Institutions are selling while retail investors are buying, this is divergence... Will there be a reversal next year?

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LayoffMiner

· 2025-12-29 07:42

Institutions are clearly running away, yet retail investors are still here taking the bait... A shrinkage of 2.5 billion, it's no joke. CME is withdrawing, spot ETFs are also flowing out, and the basis is narrowing. When these signals stack up, it's hard not to panic. The deep divergence indicates that everyone has long been doing their own thing, with no consensus at all. It was also around this time last year that issues arose, which is a bit frightening. Negative premium is being stubbornly maintained, but who knows how long it can last? When institutions move, retail investors all follow suit. This logic is all too familiar. Could there be another round of "bank runs"? Just watch. The narrowing of the basis is not a good sign; it means the pricing power between futures and spot is shifting. With institutional funds retreating so rapidly, it's really hard to see what happens next.

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