2025-12-28 02:40:15

#数字资产市场动态 The December 2025 Federal Reserve FOMC meeting's Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) have sparked heated discussions. Many equate it with QE, but that's a huge misunderstanding. This analytical report straightforwardly states: RMP is not a new round of QE; it’s more like a technical operation before the QE era.

**Is Fed's balance sheet expansion equal to QE? Think too much**

The Fed’s early balance sheet expansion mainly aims to maintain sufficient reserves and respond to economic growth and seasonal liquidity needs. In simple terms, this is a technical operation and does not indicate a policy shift. From December 2025 to April 2026, the RMP scale will remain high, then gradually slow down. Its true purpose is singular: to stabilize the monetary market interest rates and keep the federal funds rate within the policy range.

**RMP and QE, one is routine, the other is emergency**

Many confuse these two concepts. RMP is a "market-neutral" routine operation to maintain interest rate order. QE? That’s a genuine crisis tool used to break through the zero interest rate limit, actively lower long-term rates, and stimulate the economy. From an accounting perspective, both expand the Fed’s balance sheet, but essentially one is "maintenance," the other is "rescue."

**History proves: QE only appears during crises**

Looking back at the Fed’s century-long ledger, the so-called large-scale QE expansions only occurred during four periods: the Great Depression (1929–1933), World War II (1941), Lehman moment (2008), and pandemic shock (2020). Do you see the pattern? Each time, it was only after rates hit zero that they were forced to launch QE.

In other words: unless the economy plunges into a major crisis and rates have nowhere to go but down, the Fed is unlikely to restart QE easily. When will the next QE come? Probably when the next large-scale crisis erupts.

**What does this mean for your investments?**

During normal monetary policy periods, focus on the direction of interest rates. Don’t be fooled by the numbers on the Fed’s balance sheet. Don’t use the pace of balance sheet expansion to simply predict asset prices—before 2008, people also didn’t pay much attention to the balance sheet, and you know the result.

Of course, risks like escalating geopolitical tensions, the US economy underperforming expectations, or the Fed suddenly turning hawkish should still be closely monitored. $ETH $ZEC $BNB

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TerraNeverForget

· 2025-12-30 23:22

Expansion ≠ QE, this time someone finally explained it clearly, so we don't have to see a bunch of people blindly leading the rhythm every day --- Once again, I missed the chance to buy coins because I was scared, haha --- Exactly, people tend to confuse technical operations with crisis tools, and then they start yoloing --- Really, it’s always like this. Seeing the expansion numbers makes you nervous, but it’s just routine maintenance --- Wait, did I get the inflation risk I was worried about earlier wrong? --- Those who understand have seen through it long ago, but unfortunately most are still being led by public opinion --- RMP is just RMP, no need to rely on QE, the market just likes to scare itself --- The history is so clear. Don’t expect to see real QE before the next crisis, this logic makes sense --- Damn, the key is to keep an eye on interest rates and geopolitical risks, don’t be fooled by surface numbers --- This analysis is thorough, saving me a lot of unnecessary expenses

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BearMarketBarber

· 2025-12-29 01:37

Haha, here comes another wave of panic selling where people can't tell RMP from QE... It's actually just the Fed's routine operations, don't be scared by the headlines. --- Honestly, seeing so many still equate balance sheet expansion with QE, it reassures me that there are still plenty of retail investors. --- The core point is: QE only acts in deadlock situations. Right now, it's just small maneuvers to manage reserves. No need to panic. --- Wait, wait, wait, before 2008 no one took the balance sheet seriously either. Isn't that a bit ironic... --- So, just keep an eye on the interest rate trend. RMP is just a smokescreen; the real signal is the federal funds rate. --- Geopolitical escalation + economic slowdown + Fed turning hawkish—any one of these is enough to be concerning, more so than RMP itself. --- Got it, it's the difference between maintaining order and emergency rescue. But from a practical standpoint, the market will still speculate on these expectations and continue to trap retail investors. --- No matter how clearly you explain, the market will still overestimate expectations. Let's see what they do by the end of the year.

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AlwaysAnon

· 2025-12-28 03:10

Here's another popular science explanation that RMP ≠ QE. Alright, I believe it, but the real question is, do interest rates still have to be this high?

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degenonymous

· 2025-12-28 03:08

Expanding the balance sheet ≠ QE, this needs to be explained repeatedly; too many retail investors are scared and stunned. --- To be honest, RMP is just routine maintenance; don't treat it as a lifesaver. --- The history is right there; QE only appears during crises, and we're not at that point yet. --- The key still depends on interest rates; don't scare yourself by staring at the Federal Reserve's statements. --- The logic is actually very clear: maintaining order vs. genuine emergency relief, two different things. --- So the next round of QE will have to wait until a major crisis occurs; it's still early.

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CryptoDouble-O-Seven

· 2025-12-28 03:04

Damn it, another bunch of people mixing up RMP and QE, really speechless --- Honestly, expanding the balance sheet ≠ QE, this really needs a good explanation --- History has made it clear, unless the economy is doomed, don’t expect QE, we’re still far from that --- So now it’s just a technical operation, no need to be scared and stunned --- If you say so, then you should focus on interest rates rather than the numbers on the balance sheet --- The difference between crisis tools and daily operations is still quite clear this time --- From 2025 to 2026, this round of RMP is just to extend liquidity, don’t overthink it --- QE is not that easy, we have to wait for the next big crisis --- Expanding the balance sheet is scary, but RMP is just about maintaining order, not that complicated --- The key is still the direction of interest rates, I need to remember this

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SudoRm-RfWallet/

· 2025-12-28 03:03

Balance sheet expansion ≠ QE, this needs to be clarified. Too many people are scared and stunned. --- Honestly, RMP is just a technical skill; don't treat it as a monster. --- Historically, QE has always been forced; it only happens during crises when zero interest rates are reached. We're still far from that. --- Interest rates are the key; don't just stare at the numbers on the balance sheet and overthink. --- Before 2008, no one paid much attention to balance sheet expansion. We need to learn from this lesson. --- RMP is just to maintain order; QE is a life-saving medicine. They are different things and should be distinguished. --- Geopolitics is the real killer move; it's much more frightening than balance sheet expansion.

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MaticHoleFiller

· 2025-12-28 03:03

Here comes another wave of "not QE" brainwashing. I'm already tired of this rhetoric. --- Expanding the balance sheet is just expanding the balance sheet. They have to give it a name—RMP, OMO, or roster—it's all the same, and in the end, it's just printing money. --- Interesting, history only looks at crisis periods. So what about the times when they secretly print money during normal times? --- It sounds nice, but when interest rates quietly move downward, asset prices have already soared. --- Basically, they just want to maintain stability. Don't be fooled by "routine operations." --- So when will the next crisis come? I'm already ready to buy the dip. --- Is RMP routine? Then why wasn't it so frequent before? This logic doesn't quite hold up.

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ConsensusBot

· 2025-12-28 02:48

Same old story, expanding the balance sheet is just expanding the balance sheet. Why insist on giving it a new name to soothe the market? --- Honestly, it's just fear that people will see through this as a form of covert liquidity injection, just a different name for the same thing. --- RMP, QE, call it whatever you like; anyway, the money is printed, and someone has to ultimately foot the bill. --- I've heard this logic too many times. Every time they say "this time is different," but what’s the result? --- Historical patterns are not wrong, but I worry that the current crisis definition has already been quietly changed. --- Instead of fussing over RMP or QE, it's better to keep a close eye on Treasury yields—that's the real signal. --- The biggest risk in investing is being brainwashed. Technical tricks are just for listening; tracking capital flows is more authentic.

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HappyMinerUncle

· 2025-12-28 02:42

Come on, it's not QE, and they don't have to scare retail investors. The Federal Reserve's actions are honestly a bit disgusting.

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