Market Talk of "Endless Rally" Keeps Changing, But the Bear Market Drop Pattern Holds True

Everyone’s talking differently these days. The narrative has shifted from “there’s no bear market, we’re in perpetual growth” to “it’s just a slow uptrend now, because institutions are buying the dip.” But here’s the thing—we’ve heard this before.

Back in 2021, the same voices insisted the cycle had broken, that we’d entered a permanent bull phase. Then 2022 hit, and the market delivered a harsh reality check. So now, when people throw around claims of “no bear market” again, the market remains skeptical. The language just evolved to sound more credible: perpetual bull became slow bull, same optimism in different packaging.

The reality is simpler: markets move in cycles. Every uptrend eventually faces a pullback, and every bear market eventually bottoms out. If we follow this pattern, the current bull run still has room to play out—any dip along the way is fair game for buyers.

What about the next downturn? History suggests it’s coming, but with a twist. Each bear market cycle shows smaller drops compared to the previous one. Bitcoin’s crash depths have been compressing. Based on this pattern, if a bear market does materialize, the floor could settle around the 70,000 level—substantially higher than previous bear market lows. The drops are getting softer, even as the market continues its long-term upward trajectory.