2025-12-26 15:27:19

Since the low of 11.21 at 2623.57 to the high of 12.11 at 3447.44, ETH is now at a very critical position.

Referring back to the wave on 12.24, I mentioned that BTC was a false breakdown, and ETH's movement was actually synchronized with BTC. Currently, ETH is very likely undergoing a sideways adjustment, but how can we find good entry points during this process?

I looked at the charts and identified two more probable scenarios—

**First**: ETH remains sideways here, and during the adjustment, the real body of the candlestick must not break below 2888.7. After reaching the limit, it suddenly breaks out and rises. In this case, there is hope to re-stand above 3447.44 by mid to late January.

**Second**: The rally starting from 2775.19 is actually just a rebound within this range. After the rebound, it continues to decline, and only after finding a bottom of the correction does a new upward wave begin.

What is the biggest difference between these two scenarios? If the first scenario occurs, the adjustment will end relatively quickly. If you haven't found a good entry point, you'll miss the entire move later. The second scenario involves a few more days of adjustment, and once a bottom is found, there will still be a wave of gains to participate in.

**My trading approach is this**: I will continue to observe, looking for signals of stopping during small retracements, then gradually try long positions. The stop-loss is set near today’s starting point at 2889. Don’t worry about hitting the stop; keep looking for opportunities to try. This is the cost of riding a big rally.

If the recent decline is quite sharp and there are no clear signs of stopping at 2889, or even if 2780 cannot hold, then it might be heading into the second scenario. At this point, I will keep a close eye on the market. Once there are signs of stopping, I will try again, but the stop-loss may need to be loosened a bit, starting with the previous low near 2623.57. If the market develops as expected, I will gradually move the stop-loss up to the recent low, and once it returns above the cost basis, I can continue holding.

ETH-0,64%

BTC-0,43%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

7 Likes

Reward
7
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

TopEscapeArtist

· 5h ago

Still debating the entry point? I've been watching the 2889 level for three days. Can it really hold... I don't understand this kind of sideways movement. Every time I think I see it clearly, it gets smashed down. Now I'm just waiting to get hit. I've experienced both missing out and getting trapped. This time, I probably can't avoid one of them either.

View OriginalReply0

CoinBasedThinking

· 5h ago

Well, there's some truth to that. I'm just worried that setting a large stop-loss when going for the second type might lead to a margin call. --- 2888 is definitely a level to hold. If it breaks through, it's game over. --- Trying more is okay, but don't be greedy. Take it one step at a time. --- It still seems to depend on Bitcoin's direction; ETH is following too closely. --- Just take the loss if needed. Anyway, this market trend still has a long way to go. --- Both types of movements seem possible; it all depends on who breaks first. --- This sideways trading is the hardest to endure, more torturous than a sudden crash. --- That line at 2623 is really a bloodline; if it breaks, there's no hope. --- Gradually trying more is a good move, it feels like lowering the average cost.

View OriginalReply0

All-InQueen

· 5h ago

This analysis is so detailed. I need to keep a close eye on the 2888.7 level. It feels like the second trend has a higher probability... --- Missing out is the worst. You still need to find that stop signal, otherwise it's just like chasing highs. --- I'm not afraid of taking losses, but I worry about shaking my mindset. I pick this approach. --- The key support at the previous low of 2623.57 must hold. If broken, it will be really uncomfortable. --- Chopping sideways is so annoying. Might as well just go for a direct breakout. Waiting around still might lead to a dip? --- Placing a stop-loss at 2889 for a long position. This risk management is pretty good; I’ve learned from it. --- Can we stay above 3447 in mid to late January? Feels like this expectation is a bit optimistic. --- Observing small-level retracements is a good idea. It’s much more reliable than blindly bottom-fishing. --- Why does it feel like both trend possibilities are quite probable? I’ll wait until tomorrow’s candlestick to decide.

View OriginalReply0

GateUser-9ad11037

· 5h ago

Clear logic, 2889 is the key defensive line. If it breaks, then we'll have to consider the second option. Good psychological preparation.

View OriginalReply0

DAOdreamer

· 5h ago

Looking at this position, you really need to be cautious. The 2888.7 threshold is honestly a bit annoying. But gradually testing this approach is still reliable, to avoid regretting it after a sudden move.

View OriginalReply0

TheShibaWhisperer

· 5h ago

2888 is really the critical point; if it breaks, you have to admit defeat.

View OriginalReply0

AirdropHunter007

· 6h ago

This guy's analysis is quite detailed, but I still think it's very difficult to really hold the 2889 level. Bitcoin's rebound this time lacks momentum.

View OriginalReply0