Grasping the Bull Market Cycle: When Will the Next Rally Start Based on Bitcoin Historical Data

As the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization worldwide, Bitcoin has experienced multiple spectacular bull markets since its inception in 2009. Each bull run follows a unique rhythm driven by different market forces. For investors seeking profits in the crypto market, understanding these cycles is crucial. So, how long does a typical bull market last? Where are the trigger points for the next cycle? Let’s explore the answers through historical data and market signals.

Why Do Bitcoin Bull Markets Occur Cyclically?

What is the essence of a bull market? In the crypto world, a bull market is not just about rising prices; it also involves surging trading volume, heightened investor sentiment, and continuous influx of new funds. Compared to traditional stock markets, Bitcoin’s bull swings are more volatile, with higher profit potential, but also increased risks.

Halving events are the most reliable triggers Bitcoin’s economic model determines its scarcity. The halving event, occurring every four years, cuts miners’ rewards in half, directly reducing new supply. Historically, each halving has triggered significant price increases:

• After 2012 halving: +5,200%
• After 2016 halving: +315%
• After 2020 halving: +230%
• 2024 April halving: subsequent market movements confirmed the continued validity of this pattern

Besides halving, factors like institutional investment, policy support, and economic environment changes can accelerate the onset of bull markets.

The Four Major Bitcoin Bull Markets in History

2013: The Era of Wild Growth

This was Bitcoin’s first exposure to the public eye. Price soared from about $145 in May to $1,200 in December, a 730% increase. The driving forces included: skyrocketing media attention, the Cyprus banking crisis boosting safe-haven demand, and early adopters’ enthusiasm.

However, early 2014, Mt. Gox exchange was hacked and collapsed, handling 70% of global Bitcoin transactions at the time. This disaster shattered market confidence, causing Bitcoin’s price to fall below $300, a decline of over 75%. This case shows investors that even the strongest bull markets cannot withstand systemic risks.

Duration of the 2013 cycle: About 8 months of upward trend, followed by a long correction.

2017: Retail Investors’ Frenzy

2017 marked the era of “全民参与” (mass participation) in crypto. Bitcoin rose from around $1,000 in January to nearly $20,000 in December, a staggering 1,900% increase. Daily trading volume surged from less than $2 million at the start of the year to $15 billion by year-end.

The three main drivers: the ICO token fundraising craze attracting new investors, the rise of crypto exchanges lowering entry barriers, and widespread media coverage creating strong FOMO. Almost everyone talked about Bitcoin, and the “missed out and regret for life” mentality pushed prices higher.

But the good times didn’t last. Early 2018, regulators in China and globally cracked down—ICOs were banned, exchanges shut down. By December 2018, Bitcoin dropped to $3,200, an 84% decline from the peak. The aftereffects of this bull run lasted over a year.

Duration of the 2017 cycle: About 12 months of sustained growth, followed by a 2-year long bear market.

2020-2021: The Institutional Era Begins

This bull market was markedly different in quality. Bitcoin was no longer just a retail game; it became an asset class for institutional investors.

Early 2020, as the pandemic triggered global monetary easing, Bitcoin surged from $8,000 to $64,000 by April 2021, a 700% increase. It then hit a record high of $69,000 in November 2021. The driving forces included: companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, Square adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets; the launch of institutional-grade futures products; and the narrative of “inflation hedge” gaining acceptance.

Institutional participation changed the game. They tend to hold long-term rather than chase quick gains, leading to relatively smoother market volatility, but also less extreme FOMO. By July 2021, Bitcoin retraced to around $30,000 (a 53% drop), then rebounded.

Duration of the 2020-2021 cycle: About 18 months of main upward trend, with multiple 10-20% corrections along the way.

2024-2025: A New Cycle Driven by ETFs

The latest bull market kicked off in early 2024. The trigger was the SEC’s approval of a US spot Bitcoin ETF, opening the door for traditional finance. From about $40,000 in January to $93,000 in November, a 132% increase.

Within four months of ETF approval, net capital inflows exceeded $1 billion, reaching a total of $2.8 billion by November—surpassing all gold ETF inflows. Institutional investors can now participate via ETFs, lowering entry barriers. Meanwhile, the halving event in April 2024 reaffirmed this pattern’s validity.

Current market features: More stable upward trend, with stronger bottom support. Long-term holders locking in positions, reducing circulating supply.

How to Identify the Start and End of a Bull Market?

For investors, the key questions are: Is now a good time to enter? How long until the next bull market?

Technical signals

• RSI indicator: Above 70 usually indicates strong momentum. By late 2024, Bitcoin’s RSI repeatedly broke this level, showing buying strength.
• Moving averages: The crossover of 50-day and 200-day moving averages is a classic trend indicator. Price breaking above these often signals a new upward cycle.
• Volume confirmation: True bull markets are accompanied by increasing volume. During bear phases, volume shrinks; during bull runs, it expands.

On-chain data signals

• Exchange balances decreasing: Investors withdrawing to cold wallets, indicating strong long-term holding intent.
• Stablecoin inflows: Large inflows of USDC, USDT into exchanges suggest big funds preparing to buy.
• Wallet activity: An increase in active addresses often leads price by 2-4 weeks.
• Whale behavior: Large holder buying and selling patterns often hint at market turning points.

Macro signals

• Policy environment: Post-2024 US presidential election, pro-crypto policies improve, boosting market sentiment.
• Economic cycle: In high-interest-rate environments, Bitcoin’s appeal as a “hard asset” rises. If the Fed begins cutting rates, liquidity will increase, benefiting Bitcoin.
• Institutional allocations: New ETF products, pension fund allocations are bullish signs.
• Halving cycle: The next halving is expected around 2028. Historically, a new bull cycle tends to start 12-18 months before halving.

How Long Can a Typical Bull Market Last?

Based on historical data, we can summarize the following patterns:

Key insight: Bitcoin’s bull market duration is shortening, but the amplitude is increasing. This reflects market participants’ iteration and maturation. In early wild growth, a cycle could last 2 years; now, more efficient markets see cycles of 3-12 months more commonly.

When Will the Next Cycle Arrive?

Based on the above, we can make the following judgments:

Likely in the short term (2025):

• The halving effect from April 2024 is still unfolding; typically takes 6-9 months to fully digest.
• The new US administration may continue to promote crypto-friendly policies.
• ETF inflows will likely persist, with institutional interest still growing.

Medium term (2025-2026):

• Will the Fed continue rate cuts? This affects overall liquidity for risk assets.
• Progress of legislation on Bitcoin as a strategic reserve (e.g., Senator Cynthia Lummis’s BITCOIN Act).
• Will Layer-2 scaling solutions (like OP_CAT upgrade) succeed, expanding Bitcoin’s use in DeFi?

Long-term trend:

• The fixed supply cap of 21 million coins will never change.
• The four-year halving is an embedded scarcity mechanism.
• Institutional holdings will only increase, not decrease.

Practical Investment Tips

1. Dollar-cost averaging, don’t try to bottom-fish

No one can precisely predict the bottom. Instead, make small, multiple purchases at different price points. This allows participation and lowers average cost.

2. Set stop-losses, don’t gamble

Investors who bought at the peaks of 2017 and 2021 saw holdings shrink by over 80%. Setting a 3-5% stop-loss can protect capital during sharp corrections.

3. Use reputable platforms and secure tools

Choose large exchanges with security certifications and asset custody, and hardware wallets. Avoid small, unverified platforms with high yields—they carry far greater risks.

4. Pay attention to on-chain data, not just K-line charts

Learn to interpret Bitcoin’s on-chain info: whale movements, exchange balances, active addresses. These data often reflect market reality better than technical indicators.

5. Do your homework and follow policy updates

Regularly read official announcements, regulatory news, and technical upgrades. For example, whether the OP_CAT upgrade passes can significantly impact Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.

Evolution of Bitcoin Bull Market Cycles

From 2013 to now, three clear iterations have emerged:

• Phase 1 (2013-2017): Retail-driven, sentiment-led, highly volatile
• Phase 2 (2018-2021): Institutional entry, narrative upgrade, longer cycles
• Phase 3 (2022–present): Product innovation (ETFs), ecosystem maturity, lower participation barriers

Each phase is more regulated, efficient, and “boring” (from a hype perspective). But this is the natural progression of Bitcoin toward mainstream financial assets.

Conclusion: Patience for the Next Opportunity

Accurately predicting each Bitcoin bull cycle is unrealistic. But understanding the economic logic and market mechanics behind these cycles can help investors make more rational decisions.

Current situation: Bitcoin is in the upward phase of the 2024-2025 bull market, but not in extreme euphoria. From the current price of $86,900, we are close to the previous high of $93,000, indicating potential for further growth. But no one can guarantee when the top will be reached.

The key is to recognize: Every bull market will not last forever. After 2013, there was a bear market; after 2017, the same; and after 2021, it’s no different. Proper capital management, setting expectations, and taking profits regularly are timeless fundamentals.

The next halving cycle is in 2028. Before then, we are likely to experience 1-2 smaller corrections and rebounds. Stay patient, prepare thoroughly, and when the opportunity arrives, you won’t miss it.