Recently, the most talked-about topic in the market is still tariffs. But to be honest, most discussions miss the point. Having been involved in the crypto market for many years, my observation is: on the surface, it's trade friction; behind the scenes, the real bomb is the debt crisis of the US$37 trillion US Treasury bonds.

**The Debt Black Hole Has Become a Time Bomb**

The data is clear: US federal debt will surpass US$37 trillion by 2025. The annual interest payments alone exceed US$1 trillion — a figure more alarming than the defense budget. Even more concerning, US$9.2 trillion of Treasury bonds will mature in 2025, with US$6.5 trillion due in June, a scale comparable to the total GDP of Germany and Japan.

For a long time, US fiscal policy has fallen into a vicious cycle. Military spending can't be cut, social welfare can't be significantly reduced, and tax cuts squeeze revenue. The result? Where does the money come from? It can only be borrowed continuously and money supply expanded excessively. As the snowball grows larger, international rating agencies have begun to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating.

**Financial Game Behind Tariffs**

This is Trump's real consideration. Since the hole can't be filled, why not use tariff policies to create panic and force global capital to continue buying US debt? Look at what happened after the April 2025 announcement of additional tariffs. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury dropped from 4.2% to 3.9%, saving about US$30 billion in annual interest costs. This is not a trade war at all — it's a "panic-driven" financial operation.

For the crypto market, the evolution of the US debt crisis directly affects global liquidity expectations and the pricing logic of risk assets. Paying attention to this underlying change is more valuable than chasing hot news.