Don't just focus on a few rate cuts; the policy shift by the Federal Reserve in 2026 will be the last escape hatch for the crypto world. Major investment banks have recently been flooding social media with their forecasts for the Fed's direction next year, but the perspectives of traditional giants and the crypto market are fundamentally different.

While the banks debate the details, we need to look at the overall direction. Danske Bank predicts rate cuts in March and June, Citibank bets on another in September, and SocGen believes March will be the final move—sounds chaotic, right? But what truly matters is: no mainstream investment bank dares to suggest a rate hike in 2026. This detail is crucial, indicating that the most difficult phase of liquidity tightening is counting down.

As long as the last one or two rate cuts happen, any change in direction will mark a watershed for global capital flows. The crypto market has never been about volume; it’s about the flow’s direction. Be aware of what BlackRock said: unless the labor market deteriorates sharply, their judgment won't change. The Fed fears soaring unemployment—what if employment truly collapses in 2026? At that point, the Fed will desperately cut rates, traditional assets will panic, and the crypto market—being one of the few arenas that can respond instantly to liquidity releases—will become a key focus for capital. This isn’t guesswork; the logic from the March 2020 rally is exactly the same.

There’s also a hidden condition that cannot be ignored. Mitsubishi UFJ points out that a 5% drop in the US dollar index is the key; when the dollar weakens, capital flows into non-US assets. This 5% may seem insignificant, but over the past two years, the dollar’s strength has siphoned off enormous global funds. Once the trend reverses, even a limited decline will prompt敏感的资金 to rush into volatile, consensus-driven assets like crypto.

What should we do now? Remember three words: Hold, Watch, Accumulate. Hold means not being shaken out by short-term volatility—2026 is a policy inflection point, and holding onto your positions is winning. Watch isn’t about price trends but about unemployment data and changes in Fed officials’ rhetoric—that’s the real signal. Accumulate means positioning before liquidity is truly released, focusing on assets that can withstand market tests. Don’t always think about what to buy; first, make sure you’re still in the game.