By the end of 2025, the precious metals market is experiencing a rare rally—spot gold surpassing $4,500 per ounce, silver reaching $75 per ounce at one point, with an annual increase of nearly 160%. After this wave splashed in the traditional financial markets, it quickly spilled over into the crypto space, with tokenized commodities (RWA) and on-chain derivatives trading becoming new breakout points.

Why are gold and silver so crazy? It may seem random at first glance, but the logic is quite clear. The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates multiple times this year, pushing the US dollar index to multi-year lows, significantly reducing the opportunity cost of holding interest-free assets (like gold)—this is the first driving force. Meanwhile, global geopolitical tensions are increasing uncertainty, and emerging market central banks are starting to collectively increase their gold holdings to hedge risks. The data is clear: the Chinese central bank has been increasing its holdings for 13 consecutive months, Russia’s gold reserves have exceeded $300 billion, and Poland has even set a target for gold to account for 30% of its foreign exchange reserves. Behind this is a major trend—global reserve assets are quietly shifting from US Treasuries to gold.

How do institutions view the subsequent market? The consensus is generally bullish. Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to reach $4,900 in 2026, IG’s target is $5,000, and Yardeni Research is more aggressive, projecting $6,000. Due to strong industrial demand and tight supply, silver’s potential target ranges between $72 and $88. These supporting factors ensure that gold remains above $4,000, gradually evolving into a neutral anchor point in the post-dollar era.

For the crypto market, this wave of price action expands the imagination space for on-chain assets. The RWA track is gaining momentum, with more and more on-chain derivatives protocols emerging, allowing users to directly trade precious metal exposure without necessarily going to futures exchanges. The connection points between traditional finance and the Web3 ecosystem are opening up. How the story unfolds depends on who can move these real assets on-chain faster and make them sufficiently liquid and efficient.