When Will the Bitcoin Bull Market Start Based on the Halving Cycle: Historical Patterns and Future Opportunities

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced several profound market cycle changes. Every major rally is not spontaneous but follows specific cyclical patterns—particularly closely related to the halving events of block rewards. For investors aiming to seize the next bull run, understanding these historical patterns is crucial.

What is the core driving force behind the start of a bull market?

Bitcoin’s bull cycle is typically driven by several key factors: halving events, influx of institutional funds, regulatory breakthroughs, and reduced supply. Compared to traditional markets, Bitcoin bull markets are characterized by higher volatility, more dramatic gains, and more concentrated time cycles.

Historical price data clearly reflect this pattern. After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin surged by 5200%; after the 2016 halving, it increased by 315%; following the 2020 halving, it rose by 230%. The decreasing percentages behind these figures reflect the expansion of market fundamentals— as participation increases, achieving the same percentage gains becomes increasingly difficult.

Historical bull market review: from 2013 to now

2013: The first large-scale breakout

This was Bitcoin’s first entry into the public eye. The price soared from about $145 in May to $1200 in December, a 730% increase. The driving forces included extensive media coverage, the Cyprus banking crisis triggering safe-haven demand, and Bitcoin’s novelty as a new asset class.

However, 2013 also exposed market fragility. The world’s largest Bitcoin exchange at the time collapsed due to security vulnerabilities, severely damaging market confidence. Subsequently, Bitcoin fell below $300 in 2014, a decline of over 75%. The lesson from this collapse is: infrastructure and security are prerequisites for market stability.

2017: The retail investor frenzy

2017 is known as the “全民参与” (全民参与) era of Bitcoin. From $1,000 in January to nearly $20,000 in December, a 1900% increase. The uniqueness of this bull run was driven by: the explosion of new financing methods (ICO token issuance) attracting millions of new investors, greatly improved exchange convenience, and intense media coverage.

But after the frenzy came a painful correction. By the end of 2018, Bitcoin plummeted from $20,000 to $3,200, a decline of over 84%. This collapse exposed the vulnerability of retail investors— when regulatory storms hit (such as China’s ban on ICOs and crypto trading), the market lacked resilience.

2020-2021: Institutional capital enters

This bull cycle was fundamentally different. Bitcoin climbed from $8,000 in early 2020 to $64,000 in April 2021, a 700% increase. More importantly, the driving force behind this rally was—the collective participation of large institutional investors.

MicroStrategy, Tesla, Square, and other publicly listed companies announced converting part of their assets into Bitcoin. Prominent hedge fund managers began including Bitcoin in their portfolios. The launch of futures contracts and trust products provided standardized investment channels for institutions. During this period, Bitcoin’s narrative shifted from “scarce digital gold” to “inflation hedge”—a crucial transformation that conferred “institutional-level” legitimacy.

2024-2025: Spot ETF rewrites the game

This year’s Bitcoin performance marks a new era. From $40,000 at the start of the year to $93,000 in November, a 132% increase. The core driver of this rally is the approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF.

While it appears to be a regulatory event, its impact is profound:

• Significantly lower investment barriers: Traditional investors can now directly buy Bitcoin exposure through stock accounts, without learning to self-custody wallets or operate exchanges.
• Massive capital inflow: The spot Bitcoin ETF attracted over $4.5 billion in net inflows in 11 months, surpassing the same period for gold ETFs.
• Institutional holdings hit new highs: BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone holds over 467,000 Bitcoin, and the total holdings of all Bitcoin ETFs exceed 1 million Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the fourth halving event in April further compressed supply. Based on previous data, post-halving rallies tend to peak within 12-18 months.

On-chain data revealing bull signals

For investors seeking to predict the next bull run, on-chain data provides key leading indicators:

1. Decrease in exchange-held coins — When investors continuously transfer coins from exchanges to cold wallets, it indicates market participants are “accumulating” rather than “selling.” This is the current market condition.

2. Surge in stablecoin inflows — Large inflows of stablecoins (USDT, USDC, etc.) into exchanges are strong buy signals. It shows funds are preparing for large-scale purchases.

3. Rising wallet activity — An increase in the number of active addresses and reactivation of old wallets (often early holders) suggest the start of a new participation cycle.

4. RSI and moving average crossovers — Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaking above 70, and price crossing above 50-day and 200-day moving averages, are technical bullish signals.

Policy and macro factors: new variables

Past bull markets were mainly driven by Bitcoin’s own cycles. This year, new policy variables have emerged:

Shift in US political stance — During the Biden administration, crypto regulation was relatively conservative, but signals from the new government are notably more friendly. Rumors even suggest the US might adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset—this would significantly boost demand.

Other countries’ experiments — El Salvador has officially adopted Bitcoin as legal tender; Bhutan has accumulated over 13,000 Bitcoin through a national fund (a proportionally large government holding relative to its economy). If major economies follow suit, Bitcoin demand will experience structural growth.

Anticipated technological upgrades — Discussions about activating new features on the Bitcoin mainnet are heating up. If implemented, Bitcoin could support higher transaction throughput and more complex applications, greatly expanding its use cases.

Current market status: mid-bull or pre-peak?

As of the latest data, Bitcoin is priced at $88,940, with a 24-hour increase of 1.52%, and a circulating market cap of $1.77 trillion. This position is quite interesting:

• Close to all-time high — ATH at $126,080, meaning a 40% increase from current levels could set a new high, which is not impossible in a bull market.
• Institutional participation at new highs — but compared to the retail frenzy of 2017, current sentiment indices are relatively moderate (both bullish and bearish at 50%), indicating room for further participation.
• Less than 12 months since the halving — based on historical patterns, peak usually occurs 10-18 months after the April halving, suggesting we are in the mid-cycle phase.

How should investors prepare?

Based on the above analysis, here are recommendations for different investor types:

Long-term holders: The current accumulation window may not last long. If you believe in Bitcoin’s long-term value as a digital asset, a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy is reasonable. Key is to choose secure, reliable platforms and enable all security features (including 2FA and withdrawal whitelists).

Traders: Short-term volatility offers trading opportunities, but strict stop-losses are essential. History shows that chasing highs in a bull market often results in being caught in short-term corrections. Setting clear profit targets and risk limits is necessary.

Institutional investors: Spot ETFs provide standardized exposure. The current participation level (compared to the special investments in 2013 or 2017) remains relatively low, implying room for increased institutional allocation.

Risks not to ignore

Any bull market forecast must consider potential disruptive factors:

• Macroeconomic shocks — Rising interest rates, recession, or financial crises can quickly alter the attractiveness of risk assets.
• Regulatory surprises — Despite improved policy environments, sudden restrictions (e.g., on exchanges) could trigger sharp corrections.
• Technical risks — While Bitcoin’s network has been thoroughly validated, risks within the broader ecosystem could spill over.
• Market structure changes — Excessive leverage could lead to sudden liquidations and cascade effects.

Conclusion: When will the next bull market start?

While precise timing is impossible, historical patterns offer clear guidance:

Bitcoin’s bull cycles occur roughly every 4 years (aligned with halving). Currently, we are 8 months post-2024 halving, and based on historical trends, a peak could emerge within the next 6-12 months.

More importantly, unlike previous cycles, the current infrastructure and participant base are much more developed. The chaos of regulation in 2013 and the speculative frenzy of 2017 are lessons learned. Today, Bitcoin faces genuine institutional demand, supportive policies, and expanding use cases.

Final advice for investors: avoid trying to perfectly time the market, but participate when the trend is clear. All current signs—on-chain accumulation, institutional inflows, friendly policies, and technological upgrade expectations—point to the mid-to-late stage of a Bitcoin bull market.

The key is to be prepared, choose reliable trading platforms and self-custody solutions, avoid chasing highs, and approach this volatile asset class with rationality. The next big surge will belong to those who have been ready all along.