In-depth analysis: What is the true "Gold Rush Season" in the crypto market?

Cryptocurrency markets, like traditional finance, experience cyclical fluctuations and varying levels of activity. Among them, альтсезон (altcoin season) as a unique phenomenon is crucial for traders seeking investment opportunities outside of Bitcoin.

In recent years, the driving factors behind альтсезон have undergone significant changes. Liquidity in stablecoins and market innovation have redefined the internal logic of this cycle. As the crypto market evolves, understanding the mechanics of альтсезон becomes increasingly important for maximizing returns and managing risks effectively.

By December 2024, the market is filled with expectations for future policies. The potential regulatory-friendly stance in the US has injected new hope for investors. This development emerged months after Bitcoin’s fourth halving, coupled with the approval of spot ETFs, laying the foundation for institutional recognition of crypto assets and fueling global investor anticipation for the next альтсезон.

Understanding the Core Meaning of альтсезон

альтсезон typically refers to the period when the total market capitalization of альткойны (altcoins) surpasses Bitcoin’s during a bull market. Unlike early markets, when capital mainly flowed from Bitcoin to altcoins, today’s альтсезон is driven more by growth in stablecoin trading pairs and increased liquidity.

This shift reflects genuine market maturity: the entry of institutional capital and participation of novice investors have fostered organic growth in the altcoin ecosystem, rather than mere speculative rotation.

альтсезон is usually accompanied by a decline in Bitcoin dominance index, increased activity in altcoin trading, and a rise in retail speculative behavior.

альтсезон vs Bitcoin Season

During альтсезон, market focus shifts from Bitcoin to altcoins. This transition is marked by significant increases in altcoin prices and trading volumes. Drivers include speculative trading, new project launches, technological advancements, and enhanced utility. As a result, many altcoins often outperform Bitcoin.

This capital flow typically occurs during periods when Bitcoin has been rising long-term and its price becomes “expensive” for retail investors.

During Bitcoin season, attention reverts to Bitcoin, often at the expense of altcoins. The Bitcoin dominance index (measuring Bitcoin’s market cap share) rises, reflecting increased investor preference for Bitcoin over altcoins. This usually stems from recognition of Bitcoin’s stability, its status as “digital gold,” or as a safe haven amid market uncertainty.

In bear markets, investors tend to hold Bitcoin or stablecoins to reduce risk, and altcoins may stagnate.

The Evolution Path of альтсезон

From Bitcoin Rotation to Stablecoin-Driven

In early crypto cycles, альтсезон mainly occurred through capital rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins. When Bitcoin’s price stagnated, traders shifted funds into altcoins seeking higher returns—defining the ICO boom of 2017 and the DeFi summer of 2020.

However, narratives have shifted. Leaders of crypto data analysis platforms note that today’s альтсезон is driven by more complex factors. Trading volume of altcoins against stablecoins has become a real indicator of market growth, rather than just speculative Bitcoin trading pairs.

Abundant liquidity provided by stablecoins like USDT and USDC lowers market entry barriers for altcoins, forming the infrastructure of the modern altcoin market.

Ethereum’s Leadership and Institutional Capital Influx

Ethereum, as the hub of DeFi and NFT ecosystems, often leads in альтсезон. Analysts predict Ethereum’s momentum will continue to drive overall altcoin performance, especially as institutional investors diversify from Bitcoin into other layers.

Institutional capital plays a key role in excess returns of altcoins. Projects like Solana and Ethereum attract investors willing to take higher risks.

Bitcoin Dominance Index: A Barometer for альтсезон

Senior crypto analysts emphasize that the Bitcoin dominance index remains a key indicator for predicting альтсезон. Historically, a sharp drop below 50% in dominance has reliably signaled the onset of альтсезон. Currently, Bitcoin’s consolidation between $91,000 and $100,000 may create opportunities for Ethereum and other altcoins to absorb liquidity.

Data Insights from альтсезон Index

Blockchain Center’s альтсезон index offers a data-based market assessment method. It measures the performance of the top 50 altcoins relative to Bitcoin. An index above 75 indicates the market has entered альтсезон, with most altcoins outperforming Bitcoin.

As of December 2024, the index has risen to 78, indicating the market is in a favorable альтсезон zone.

The Double-Edged Sword of Regulatory Attitudes

Analysts stress the importance of closely monitoring regulatory changes. Supportive measures (such as approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs) boost market confidence, while strict regulations could dampen enthusiasm for altcoins. Some large asset managers are considering launching ETFs for XRP-like altcoins, which would further promote market acceptance.

Hidden Risks of Excess Leverage

Experts warn against over-leveraging and chasing speculative hotspots during альтсезон. The high volatility of altcoins demands strict risk management. Traders are advised to adopt gradual profit-taking strategies to realize gains and reduce the impact of sudden market corrections.

“альтсезон is exciting, but discipline is essential. Without proper risk control, profits can quickly turn into losses.”

New Drivers of альтсезон

1. Liquidity in stablecoins and institutional capital have become main engines of альтсезон
2. Ethereum’s performance often serves as a leading indicator for broader altcoin rallies
3. Monitoring Bitcoin dominance and альтсезон indices provides valuable signals for traders
4. Segmented sectors like AI and GameFi drive differentiated growth in altcoins
5. Regulatory transparency is crucial for maintaining altcoin momentum

This evolution marks a maturing market, where altcoins thrive on innovation and utility rather than mere speculation.

Historical Overview: Key Drivers of Past альтсезон

Late 2017 to Early 2018

During this cycle, Bitcoin’s dominance index dropped from 87% to 32%, while altcoins surged. The ICO boom introduced many new tokens, attracting speculative capital. Market cap soared from $30 billion to over $60 billion, with many altcoins reaching all-time highs. However, subsequent regulatory crackdowns and project failures quickly ended this альтсезон.

Early 2021

Bitcoin’s dominance index fell from 70% to 38%, while altcoin market share grew from 30% to 62%. The DeFi, NFT, and meme coin ecosystems exploded. This period saw market capitalization surpass $3 trillion, driven by technological innovation and retail participation.

Q4 2023 to Mid-2024

Market optimism was mainly fueled by expectations of Bitcoin’s halving in April 2024 and the SEC’s potential approval of Ethereum spot ETF in May. Unlike previous альтсезон driven by ICOs and DeFi, this cycle involved broader market sectors, including AI, GameFi, Metaverse, DePIN, and Web3.

Projects like Arweave, JasmyCoin, dogwifhat, Worldcoin, and Fetch.ai performed strongly.

AI tokens: Integration of AI in blockchain attracted wide attention. Tokens like Render and Akash Network surged over 1000%, driven by increasing demand for AI solutions.

GameFi revival: Platforms like ImmutableX and Ronin attracted gamers and investors, showing sustained growth.

Evolution of meme coins: Once novelty tokens, meme coins began integrating AI and other practical features, exemplified by projects like SnailBrook.

Solana ecosystem performance: Solana’s ecosystem tokens increased by 945%, helping it shed the “dead chain” label, with meme coins gaining broader recognition across multiple blockchains.

This indicates that this альтсезон has reached beyond traditional DeFi and ICO domains.

Q4 2024 and Beyond: Signs of Institutional Maturity

As 2024 ends, several key trends emerge:

Institutionalization: After the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, institutional participation surged. Over 70 spot Bitcoin ETFs have been approved, boosting market confidence.

Policy shifts: The rise of crypto-friendly policymakers and potential favorable regulations strengthen market sentiment, benefiting previously regulated altcoins.

Market cap new highs: The global crypto market cap reached a record $3.2 trillion, surpassing 2021 highs, driven by renewed enthusiasm and expectations of regulatory improvements in the US.

Bitcoin surpassing $100K: From November 2024, investor sentiment warmed, with Bitcoin breaking previous highs and approaching the psychological $100,000 mark. Although not yet broken in December, most analysts expect a high probability of surpassing it within the year, with further gains in 2025.

These factors indicate a maturing market with increasingly diverse investment opportunities, setting the stage for a sustained альтсезон.

Liquidity Evolution Cycle of альтсезон

альтсезон typically unfolds in four distinct phases, reflecting the cyclical nature of the crypto market:

Phase 1: Bitcoin Dominance

• Phenomenon: Capital flows into Bitcoin as a safe haven, Bitcoin dominance rises
• Signal: Increased BTC trading volume, stagnation in altcoin prices

Phase 2: Ethereum Rise

• Phenomenon: Liquidity shifts toward Ethereum, focus on DeFi and Layer-2 projects
• Signal: ETH/BTC ratio increases, Ethereum outperforms, DeFi activity grows

Phase 3: Major Altcoins Surge

• Phenomenon: Ecosystems like Solana, Cardano, Polygon attract attention
• Signal: These projects see double-digit growth

Phase 4: Full альтсезон

• Phenomenon: Small-cap and speculative altcoins take over, market peaks
• Signal: Bitcoin dominance drops below 40%, small-cap altcoins soar parabolically

This cycle highlights the importance of tracking liquidity flows and adjusting positions accordingly.

How to Identify the Arrival of альтсезон

To determine the start of альтсезон, monitor these market indicators:

1. Bitcoin dominance index decline Falling below 50% often signals increased altcoin activity. Historically, sharp drops in dominance precede альтсезон.

2. ETH/BTC exchange rate The relative price ratio of Ethereum to Bitcoin is a key gauge of overall altcoin performance. Rising ratios indicate Ethereum outperformance, often heralding broader альтсезон.

3. альтсезон index Blockchain Center’s альтсезон index quantifies altcoin performance relative to Bitcoin. An index above 75 suggests the market has entered альтсезон.

4. Surge in altcoin trading volume Especially in alt-stablecoin pairs, increased trading volume often signals rising market confidence. Strong performance in AI tokens or meme coins can drive overall altcoin market cap growth. Recent data shows tokens like DOGE, SHIB, BONK, PEPE, and WIF have risen over 40%, indicating a possible broader альтсезон. The AI sector also shows steady growth, with projects like Render and NEAR Protocol expanding their market caps.

5. Social media buzz Trending hashtags, memes, and influencer discussions often reflect rising retail participation.

6. Market sentiment index A shift from fear to greed indicates strengthening optimism for altcoins.

7. Stablecoin liquidity Availability and trading volume of stablecoins like USDT and USDC are vital for altcoin market activity. Increased stablecoin liquidity facilitates investor entry and exit, encouraging capital inflow into altcoins. As stablecoin usage expands, it creates conditions for increased altcoin trading and broader market participation.

Trading Tips During альтсезон

• Deep research: Before investing in any альтсезон asset, thoroughly analyze project fundamentals, team, technology, and market prospects. Avoid FOMO; understand the investment logic.

• Diversify portfolio: Don’t put all funds into a single альтсезон target. Spread investments across different opportunities and sectors to reduce risk.

• Set realistic expectations: While альтсезон offers profit opportunities, don’t expect overnight riches. Market volatility is high, and prices can reverse quickly.

• Strict risk management: Always implement prudent risk controls, including stop-loss orders, to balance risk and potential reward.

Risk Assessment in альтсезон Trading

Although альтсезон presents opportunities, it also involves risks:

• High volatility: Altcoins tend to be more volatile than Bitcoin, risking significant short-term losses. Illiquid altcoins may have wider spreads, increasing trading costs.

• Speculative bubbles: Market hype and speculation can artificially inflate prices, leading to bubbles and crashes.

• Fraud risks: Beware of scams and “rug pulls,” where developers raise funds and then abandon projects. Prevent falling into traps of pump-and-dump schemes.

• Regulatory changes: Stay alert to policy shifts affecting altcoin markets.

How Regulatory Changes Impact альтсезон

Regulatory developments can have complex, far-reaching effects on альтсезон, potentially triggering booms or dampening enthusiasm.

Major past events include crackdowns on ICOs (late 2018) or stricter guidelines for exchanges (various countries)—these often caused increased volatility and a decline in альтсезон momentum.

Conversely, clearer regulations or favorable rules (such as jurisdictions providing clear legal frameworks for crypto assets) can stimulate altcoin investment growth. The recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC in the US has encouraged institutional capital, boosting overall market sentiment.

These regulatory trends underscore the importance of ongoing global policy monitoring, as they significantly influence the evolution of альтсезон.

Summary

альтсезон offers prepared traders a profitable window. By staying informed, diversifying wisely, and practicing strict risk management, traders can maximize gains during this period. Grounded in market education, investors should deepen their understanding of market dynamics to navigate альтсезон effectively.