Watch the labor market: unemployment looks set to tick higher. The data is already showing pressure points. US heavy truck sales have plummeted to 5.1 million units over the past 12 months—that's the lowest reading since 2020. Strip out the pandemic years, and you're looking at the weakest level in 8 years. This matters because truck sales are a leading economic indicator; they signal freight demand and business activity ahead. The pullback is dramatic too: annual truck orders have contracted by roughly 1.1 million units over just 18 months. When logistics companies pump the brakes on fleet purchases, it typically foreshadows softer employment across the board. Market watchers should keep close tabs on this trend—it could reshape sentiment and capital allocation strategies.