#以太坊行情解读 $BTC $ETH $BNB

[Interest Rate Trend Reversal: Rate Cut Timeline Delayed Again]

CME federal funds futures data released a significant signal. The probability of a Fed rate cut in January has dropped to less than 15%, while the likelihood of keeping rates unchanged has surged to over 85%. Wall Street's expectations have completely changed.

The market is now looking further ahead—March has become the new focal point time window. However, this probability has just exceeded 40%, indicating that Wall Street is also uncertain about whether March will mark the start of a rate-cutting cycle.

Several key points are worth noting:

First, there is a contraction in the expectations for the scale of the initial interest rate cut. The probability of a 50 basis point (0.5%) rate cut has been compressed to below 5%, and the market has given up on those aggressive fantasies. Secondly, inflation data in the next three months has become a matter of life and death. Any signs of inflation rebounding are enough to completely overturn the existing timetable. Additionally, with the Federal Reserve Chairman constantly balancing between political pressure and economic data, the complexity of this game is beyond imagination.

The most concerning thing is that the probability of a rate cut in March hasn't even broken 50%. This indicates significant divisions within the Federal Reserve, where a single piece of news or a set of data could completely rewrite the entire plan.

For holders, this uncertainty is the biggest killer. The way risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum move completely depends on when interest rate expectations actually materialize.