#WhichSectorsAreYouWatchingIn2025?

Here are the key upcoming events in the crypto industry that may have the most impact:

1. **Risk of liquidation of MicroStrategy's bitcoins (31 December 2025 )** – expiration of the forecast on Polymarket regarding forced sales of BTC by MicroStrategy.
2. **US Inflation Data (13 January 2026 )** – an important inflation indicator that affects the Federal Reserve's policy and liquidity in the crypto market.
3. **MSCI's decision on the reclassification of DAT (15 January 2026 )** – the possible exclusion of companies with a large bitcoin weight from the indices, which may lead to an outflow of funds amounting to $8.8 billion.
4. **Federal Reserve's decision on rates (28 January 2026 )** – 77% probability of keeping rates unchanged; signals of rate cuts in 2026 may impact risk assets.
5. **Launch of cryptocurrency regulation in Brazil ( February 2, 2026 )** – strict licensing requirements may reduce market participation in the largest economy in Latin America.
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The liquidation risk of MicroStrategy bitcoins ( December 31, 2025 )
**What is happening:** The contract forecast on Polymarket is about to expire regarding whether MicroStrategy will sell (MSTR) bitcoins by the end of 2025. The company holds over 650,000 BTC (around $110 billion) and may face liquidation risk if its market capitalization falls below the value of bitcoins (mNAV < 1).
**Why this matters:** A forced sale of a large volume of bitcoins could trigger a sharp increase in supply on the market, as MicroStrategy is considered one of the key buyers of BTC. Traders are buying shares of "Yes" on Polymarket at a price of $0.009 as cheap insurance against this unlikely but risky event.

US inflation data ( January 13, 2026 )
**What is happening:** The Consumer Price Index report (CPI) will show how inflation aligns with the Federal Reserve's target level of 2%. Currently, futures on Fed rates estimate a 75.6% probability of no rate cuts in January.
**Why this matters:** Higher inflation may delay rate cuts, which will create pressure on the liquidity of the crypto market. Low inflation figures may revive the notion of Bitcoin as "digital gold."

Reclassification of MSCI DAT (15 January 2026 )
**What is happening:** MSCI will decide on the possible exclusion of companies with a large weight of cryptocurrency assets (Digital Asset Treasuries, DAT), such as MicroStrategy, from its stock indices if the share of cryptocurrencies exceeds 50% of the assets.
**Why this matters:** The exclusion could lead to a passive outflow of funds ranging from $2.8 billion to $8.8 billion, which would weaken one of the key factors driving demand for bitcoin. Conversely, the approval of the decision could trigger market growth.

Federal Reserve System meeting (28 January 2026 )
**What is happening:** The first FOMC meeting in 2026, where markets expect a 77% probability of maintaining current rates. Officials forecast only one rate cut in 2026, although traders are anticipating two.
**Why this is important:** Softer signals (, such as the recognition of a cooling labor market ), may support cryptocurrencies, while a hard stance will prolong the period of "high rates" and caution in the markets.

Cryptocurrency regulation in Brazil ( February 2, 2026 )
**What is happening:** The Central Bank of Brazil is introducing strict licensing requirements for crypto companies, including capital from $2 million to $37 million and adherence to foreign exchange controls ( such as transaction limits of $100 thousand.
**Why this matters:** In the short term, this will create difficulties for unlicensed platforms, but in the long term, it will increase trust and legitimacy for regulated players. Transactions with stablecoins will be under close scrutiny.
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## Result
**Optimistic/neutral outlook:** The FOMC meeting on ) January ( and inflation data on ) January ( are key events in the near future that will determine liquidity in the market through expectations regarding rates and inflation. Keep an eye on the probabilities of Fed Fund Futures and the inflow of funds into BTC ETFs to understand the direction of the market. The MSCI decision on ) January ( carries downside risks, but regulation in Brazil on ) February ( may enhance institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies in emerging markets.