Here's a share of a manually executable cross-market prediction arbitrage strategy

This is a long-term strategy with relatively poor depth, but it also offers a decent annualized return

Taking the NBA MVP prediction market as an example
Those who watch basketball regularly know the general selection of this season’s MVP
It’s certain that this season’s MVP will be among Alexander, Jokic, and Doncic

On Polymarket, the total YES probability for these three is currently 90
And if you look at the curve
Due to insufficient depth, small orders often cause significant shifts in the order book
Therefore, if you implement an order placement strategy, ignoring the small orders at the front of the order book and placing orders at the deepest level below, you are likely to get filled
I placed about 300u on Opinion, and in 2 days, 150u was filled
Although the depth is poor and liquidity is limited, the MVP voting period still has 6 months left; by monitoring and gradually placing orders, you can slowly accumulate a substantial position by expiry

If you buy in all three markets, the combined probability is 90%
But seasoned fans know that Doncic basically has no chance this season... My strategy is to buy Doncic’s NO and buy Alexander and Jokic’s YES
Leaving an open position on Doncic is part of my cognitive arbitrage risk I am willing to take

If the strategy is executed successfully, the annualized return is about 64%
There are many other cognitive arbitrage opportunities and markets—NBA MVP is just one; there’s also the F1 world champion prediction market
Brothers who follow F1 know well the dominance of McLaren this season, and the arbitrage position has been maintained for a long time

Doing this kind of strategy here earns a bit of hard-earned money because high-frequency strategies can’t beat big teams, and arbitrage delays can’t beat those with geographical and RPC advantages—so cognitive arbitrage is the way to go
Doing this long-term strategy, a market can be played from start to finish over a year, earning a few hundred dollars, then using the volume to improve win rates