#以太坊行情技术解读 $BTC $ETH $BNB

🔥 Do you remember the last time the Bank of Japan raised interest rates? At that moment, the yen strengthened immediately, and Bitcoin responded—dropping from nearly $65,000 down to $50,000. As new rate hike expectations emerge again, many are asking: will it happen all over again this time?

‼️ According to the latest data, this round of rate hikes might not be as alarming as everyone thinks. There are two main reasons:

**Strong Position Lag Effect**: Traders have already accumulated a significant number of net long yen positions, leaving limited room for adjustments in the short term. Their reaction to rate hikes usually takes a few days to manifest.

**Yield Curve Has Reacted in Advance**: Japanese government bond yields started rising at the beginning of the year, with both short-term and long-term yields hitting new all-time highs. This indicates that the smart money has already priced in the rate hikes.

‼️ More importantly, the Federal Reserve has recently started to ease again—cutting interest rates by 25 basis points, hitting a nearly three-year low. Global liquidity is becoming more relaxed, and the pressure to close yen arbitrage trades is easing. It seems that the risk-averse sentiment and hedging fears toward the end of the year may not be as intense.

Next week's market movements are worth paying close attention to.