Can Bitcoin Restart a Bullish Trend? Here’s What It Will Take

Bitcoin’s latest drop below the $90,000 mark, despite the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the third time this year, exposes a critical weakness in the market: a severe lack of fresh liquidity. While a rate cut (25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%) is typically a bullish tailwind for risk assets, analysts point to a sharp decline in stablecoin inflows as the definitive missing ingredient, suggesting that positive macro catalysts alone are no longer enough to fuel a sustained rally. I. The Core Problem: Stablecoin Liquidity Collapse The failure of Bitcoin to rebound is fundamentally a liquidity issue, evidenced by a dramatic drop in available capital: 50% Inflow Plunge: Data reveals that stablecoin inflows into exchanges have plummeted by a staggering 50%, falling from $158 billion in August to approximately $76 billion today. The 90-day moving average also shows a clear downward trend, signaling weakening demand.Rebounds Without Buying: This steep decline means that ongoing selling pressure is not being absorbed by new capital. As a result, any slight rebound is driven more by a reduction in selling activity than by renewed buying, making any recovery fragile and unsustainable. II. The Macro Disconnect and Derivatives Drain The market’s failure to react positively to the Fed’s accommodative policy highlights how stablecoin flows are bypassing spot crypto markets: Rate Cuts Ignored: The interest rate cut, which generally injects liquidity and benefits crypto, was unable to halt the downtrend. This suggests the market is too starved of capital to react to broad macroeconomic news.Capital Diversion: While stablecoin issuers continue to mint new tokens, that supply is not reaching spot markets where BTC is traded. Instead, a significant share of the stablecoin flow is being absorbed by cross-border payment demand or is being funneled directly into derivatives exchanges. This diversion starves Bitcoin of the fresh capital needed to overcome fearful sentiment and restart a genuine bullish trend. III. Conclusion and Outlook Bitcoin’s recent price action makes it clear that liquidity, more than macro policy, is dictating the current trend. For the largest cryptocurrency to definitively restart a genuine bullish cycle, it must see a significant reversal of the stablecoin inflow trend, bringing new capital onto spot exchanges to absorb selling pressure. Until this crucial liquidity gap is filled, Bitcoin will likely remain vulnerable to corrections, regardless of favorable decisions from the Federal Reserve. ⚠️ Important Disclaimer This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.