Another touching moment may be approaching; interest rate cuts are no longer the immediate determinant of short-term daily direction. The market has pre-emptively anticipated the rate cut expectations and reacted accordingly. Many well-known online personalities suggest that Powell may make hawkish remarks during the meeting, at least influencing the medium-term trend over the next six months. I believe this impact is no longer as obvious as before because HasseT has reappeared and sent random friendly signals to the market, which is a potential challenge.

Retail investors are accustomed to watching these dramas and often lack awareness. Due to the presence of benefiting groups in the cryptocurrency market, public attention has gradually decreased. Retail investors have little actual demand for immediate assets; most players hopelessly exited the battle by the end of 2025. If you don’t have Bitcoin or spare liquidity, who else will listen to you here? Now, 80% of players are indifferent—let’s destroy all of this together.

As one of the ordinary players, yesterday I cleared all short positions, unwilling to hold high-risk positions any longer. I have long said that for most non-professional players, as time goes on and understanding deepens, the situation actually becomes less ideal. Over-consuming instant information leads to scattered thinking and confusing memories, making it difficult to make rational and long-term decisions, especially those prioritizing capital safety.

The market state after December—will it continue north or south? Nobody knows. Japan will hold an interest rate meeting on the 18th, and there are data like (CPI) that may be manipulated; originally scheduled for the 10th, it has been postponed to the 18th. After the Trump market experience on the 25th, I am even more convinced that this world is an unordered, random stage, with unpredictable events and black swans suddenly attacking us. Many investors have thus fallen into illusions about four-year cycles.

When we reach this point, we realize that the 25-year trajectory is actually designed by capital. Reflecting on December last year when Bitcoin and many altcoins soared, we thought this was the start of a strong bull market. After Biden took office, digital currencies would usher in a huge rally, at least doubling in price from that point.

Therefore, every time there is a dip this year, we are looking for patterns to support confidence, and each fluctuation encourages us to pursue value investing. But the market does not believe retail investors’ tears; they have successfully pre-judged our expectations, and our shares have become the lucrative spoils of the market’s largest players.

The expected bull market cycle in 2025 will be very difficult, but in reality, it was not anticipated to be so tough. Although this round of futures financing is far higher than spot assets, the conclusion is: after 25 years, the number of retail investors withdrawing due to losses will gradually increase, and during the false bear market of the past three years, the lack of wealth myths and tightened regulation of stablecoins have led to a continuous decrease in local players. In other words, in this liquidity-scarce period, the value of holding altcoins is very likely to collapse to zero.

These are not alarmist words, but clear future conclusions that can be logically deduced. Since the ICO era in 2017, Chinese players have accounted for up to 60% of the global crypto market, with over 70% of players in Chinese communities. By 2025, this proportion may have dropped below 40%.

Without new capital inflows, who will buy worthless altcoins?

The answer is obvious: large altcoins have become such, and marginal altcoins have lost their business vitality. A friend left a comment: “If conditions don’t permit, convert your altcoin holdings into Bitcoin.” This advice might have been valuable before 1011, but after 1011, transfer costs and losses have become very large.

In my live broadcast, I have said that for most ordinary players, Bitcoin and Ethereum are the most optimal coins. In real life, it’s hard to find better investments than Bitcoin and Ethereum. I believe that after a 25-year market cycle, openly admitting and understanding this will be more helpful for most players’ future paths.

Try to allocate some Bitcoin. Although Ethereum’s performance currently seems better, in the long run, Bitcoin remains an excellent asset suitable for long-term cyclical investment.

Entering December, although the market performed well, spot buying remained calm. The overall market atmosphere is strange; U.S. policies and the fundamentals of major coins are stabilizing, including halting easing, continued rate cuts, altcoin funds, Bitcoin/Ethereum/USDC re-mortgaging events, etc. These positive factors have not caused much volatility. Retail investors are generally pessimistic and cautious; mainstream voices mostly believe the market is in a bear phase, but senior professionals see this as a turning point, with a significant rise expected in 2026.

I also cannot clearly judge the current short-term trend, so I devised a strategy in September: sell 20% of the large holdings to wait for a correction, and delay exiting until the first quarter of 2026. Unexpectedly, influenced by a series of events on 1011, the decline of large altcoins has been so fierce.

Recently, I feel worried and disappointed about altcoin positions. Although they only account for about 30% of my assets, frankly, I had hoped that the rise of altcoins would support my life after the pandemic. Unfortunately, looking back, their peak value was in December 2024.

When I saw Ada fall below cost, I immediately understood the mood of those who started investing in altcoins from 2022-2023 and did not exit by the end of 2024. I experienced over a year of position losses; if losses continue for several years, the situation will worsen. On the other hand, when everyone plans to sell major altcoins to preserve principal or worries about risks and switch holdings to Bitcoin, where will these sold assets go?

Looking back at the charts of altcoins that broke through their 2021 highs, if they indeed have practical value, focus, community consensus, or if projects and suppliers that raised funds during the past three years of coin sweeping need to pump the price for dividends—especially in periods of high liquidity, as shown in the November live broadcast.

Today, reviewing some hourly and daily charts of major altcoins, we find they are gradually stabilizing. This does not mean prices will immediately rise, but a foundation has been laid, and the bottom is beginning to solidify. After surviving this difficult period before the first quarter of this year, I believe that as long as your average entry price is reasonable and profit expectations are adjusted from 4-5 times to 2-3 times, it is entirely possible to achieve gains.

Understanding this logic makes it easier to answer if you currently hold altcoins and want to participate in the 2026 market.

If unrealized losses are less than 30%, it indicates your average entry price is reasonable and tolerable. If the fundamentals still support high-quality narratives, continuing to hold is no problem.

Losses between 30%-50% depend on how much you focus on protecting principal; if your funds are limited and your coins have good stories, keep holding. If you have more funds and the goal is to recover, consider transferring positions to Ethereum. The entry price can be judged based on opportunities; I think the price range of 2600-2800 is attractive.

If losses exceed 50%, it depends on the daily trading volume of your coins. If below 2 million RMB, the bubble has probably burst, and there’s no need to continue holding. As for adding positions, it’s best to reconsider why you chose these coins and assess whether you are suitable for the market.