Recently, many funds have begun to lay out the expectation of interest rate cuts in December in advance. Looking at the data on Polymarket, the probability of a rate cut has now soared to more than 94%, and the market sentiment is clearly bullish.

Before the boots actually land, the market will most likely continue this optimistic atmosphere. After all, everyone is betting that this expectation will come true.

If interest rates are cut in December, we will have to keep an eye on Powell's speech - hawkish or dovish? His statement will directly determine the subsequent trend. The market is now waiting for him to give a signal.

But what if it doesn't fall? That is a blow to the market. The sense of loss that is expected to be disappointed will be amplified in an instant, and there will inevitably be sharp fluctuations in the short term, and BTC may bear the brunt of it.

So now this time point is quite delicate, the rise is on the expectation, but the risk is also hidden in this expectation.