2025-12-10 03:13:23

A data on Polymarket suddenly exploded - the probability of a certain economic advisor taking office soared to 86%.

Why is the market so excited? Because this buddy has been advocating more aggressive interest rate cuts and more aggressive economic stimulus. To put it bluntly, it is the kind of "water release pie" that makes traders want to pat their thighs when they hear it.

The incumbent has been dissed by various people for not cutting interest rates, and this new candidate happens to be on the opposite side. History tells us that every time there is a change in such a key position, the market will have a big reshuffle.

What's even more magical is that the prediction market has pressed the chips up in advance. The recent fluctuations in mainstream coins such as ETH also reflect this expectation to some extent.

When the possibility of "faucet mode" goes from a rumor to a high-probability event, what do you think will happen next?

ETH-3.23%

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AirdropBlackHole

· 12-10 03:43

86% already says it all, and the release of water is really coming this time. I have long seen that the current one is not pleasing to the eye, and the delay in cutting interest rates has caused us to wait, and now there is finally a variable.

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bridge_anxiety

· 12-10 03:43

The probability of 86% feels a bit high, and the prediction market is overpriced again Wait, can the water release faction really smash the plate when it comes to power, history can't repeat itself Mainstream currency fluctuations have long been in a mess, not necessarily this expectation This "high probability" is the easiest to be slapped in the face, and I bet it will fall below 50% The faucet mode sounds cool, but it's another thing to land Damn, it's this kind of critical moment again, and it's a big gamble every time Dare to bet 86% on this kind of thing, this market is really crazy

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GasWastingMaximalist

· 12-10 03:36

86%？ It's a bit early, the pit of history is much deeper than you think --- I am optimistic about the release of water factions, but I never believe in this probability number... Prediction markets are just a matter of time --- Wait, is ETH's recent volatility really reflecting this? Why didn't I notice... Or did I miss something hot again? --- Every time I say a big reshuffle, what is the result? The currency price was still smashed --- Instead of focusing on 86%, it is better to see how the opponent will counterattack, which is the key --- If the faucet mode really comes, then my current position will have to be recalculated... --- The betting market is crazy, but the probability of 85 or more is usually virtual, empirical talk --- In other words, is there any difference between this time and the expectations on the eve of the last UK interest rate cut? It feels the same excitement --- In any case, it will either plummet or plummet, and the middle road will not be taken

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DecentralizedElder

· 12-10 03:26

86%？ This number has risen outrageously, and I feel that the market is a bit overtraded The bulls are really greedy for this wave of "water release"... But whether history will repeat itself so smoothly is a matter of two words

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BugBountyHunter

· 12-10 03:25

86%？ This guy is really going to get on it, the water release is sent to the Taiwan dollar circle to death, I already feel that the market is about to explode This wave of ETH volatility is indeed a bit weird, the prediction market is smarter than us, and the chips have long been pressed in Once the expectation of interest rate cuts is locked, it is difficult to say what surprises there are, let's see how it plays out in the next few days

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