The freshly released unemployment benefits data is quite interesting—191,000, which is much lower than the market expectation of 220,000.

What does this mean? The job market is still holding up, and the economy isn’t as weak as you might think. With data like this, why would the Fed rush to cut rates?

So, regarding the current BTC rally, I personally remain cautious. A rebound without support from easing expectations looks more like a technical correction fueled by sentiment. To put it bluntly—it could be a trap.

Looking at BTC’s performance over the past few days, it’s been stuck near the $90,000 level. It’s not really moving up, nor is it dropping much—just hovering there. This kind of pattern usually isn’t a good sign; big money is on the sidelines:

• What will the Fed do next?
• Will CPI data remain stubbornly high?
• Will Japan suddenly switch to rate hikes?

Prices are stuck here, seemingly stable, but in reality waiting for a catalyst to pick a direction.

Many people think “rate cuts are always bullish,” but that could be a misconception. Historically, rate cuts often signal the economy is starting to weaken. And the phrase “buy the rumor, sell the news” is all too common in trading.

After a rate cut, money doesn’t always rush in—it might actually pull back to the sidelines first. So whether rates are cut or not, the short-term outlook isn’t great—a cut could lead to a drop, and if there’s no cut, continued tight liquidity could also lead to a drop. The only difference is the pace.

Here’s another point that’s easy to overlook: the Bank of Japan is becoming increasingly hawkish. While they haven’t officially hiked rates yet, the hawkish tilt is clear. If the yen strengthens, global arbitrage funds will have to flow back, and some money will be pulled out of U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and the crypto market.

In this environment, where will BTC get fresh inflows? What’s left is a zero-sum game with existing funds—you grab mine, I grab yours.

My take is straightforward:

• This rebound looks more like a bull trap
• High probability of short-term consolidation around $90,000
• Strong unemployment data = delayed rate cuts = bearish
• Even if rates are cut, BTC might drop first instead of rallying
• Hawkish Japan = global liquidity continues to tighten
• Before the Fed officially cuts, the market will most likely move down

In short: don’t treat this as the start of a bull market. It looks more like big players giving retail investors one last piece of candy, making you think “here’s my chance”—just so you end up holding the bag.

With markets, the more stable things appear, the more you need to watch out for undercurrents beneath the surface.