Spending $963 million to acquire over 10,000 Bitcoins, can Strategy's "infinite ammo" model still be sustained?

Written by: Glendon, Techub News

While the crypto market remains sluggish, Strategy disclosed yesterday that the company purchased 10,624 bitcoins last week at approximately $963 million, with an average price of around $90,615 per coin.

According to the Form 8-K filed by Strategy with the US SEC, as of December 7, 2025, Strategy holds a total of 660,624 bitcoins, at an accumulated cost of about $49.35 billion, with an average cost of about $74,696 per coin. The annualized return on bitcoin (YTD 2025) has reached 24.7%. The funds for this bitcoin purchase came from the sale of STRD and MSTR stocks in the company’s ATM financing.

This substantial increase demonstrates that Strategy’s “unlimited ammo” financing model has not been completely constrained.

Earlier this month, Strategy announced it had established a $1.44 billion US dollar cash reserve to pay preferred stock dividends and existing debt interest. This decision sparked controversy among the market and bitcoin investor community. Many believe that Strategy, instead of “buying the dip” during the decline in bitcoin prices, chose to build up cash reserves—a move that clearly deviates from the company’s long-promoted long-term dollar-cost averaging philosophy.

Faced with mounting skepticism, Strategy’s hefty bitcoin purchase may be seen as a silent yet powerful response. At the same time, this accumulation raises a question: Is this simply Strategy continuing its consistent long-term buying strategy, or is it a positive signal to the market, indicating optimism for the near-term crypto market outlook?

Additionally, it’s worth noting that while this purchase has provided a shot of confidence to the market, temporarily boosting morale, many of the difficulties facing Strategy remain unresolved. In this context, what’s next for Strategy?

Multiple Challenges Behind Strategy’s Loss of Confidence

There are several reasons why the market is gradually losing confidence in Strategy, with the slowdown in bitcoin accumulation, falling share price, and financing constraints being the most significant.

As of December 8, Strategy accumulated over 210,000 bitcoins this year, totaling 214,224 coins. While this figure is respectable, a closer look reveals a clear decline in the scale of Strategy’s bitcoin purchases.

According to CryptoQuant, Strategy’s bitcoin purchases dropped sharply in 2025, with monthly acquisitions plunging from a 2024 peak of 134,000 bitcoins to just 9,100 bitcoins in November 2025. Since August, the decline in Strategy’s buying momentum has become even more pronounced. If the earlier slowdown was due to elevated bitcoin prices, making accumulation less attractive from a cost and risk perspective, it was understandable. However, when bitcoin prices kept falling and the market widely expected Strategy to “buy the dip,” the company—being the largest DAT firm in the crypto industry—still slowed its buying, reflecting a lack of confidence, which in turn impacted sentiment among other DAT companies and institutional investors. This has hindered bitcoin’s upward momentum and may lead to further downside pressure.

So, why hasn’t Strategy recently “bought the dip” in bitcoin? This is largely attributed to changes in its share price and financing situation.

As of writing, Strategy (MSTR) is trading at $183.69, down nearly 60% from this year’s high of about $457.

The direct impact of the share price drop is a blow to Strategy’s financing capacity. At the end of October 2024, Strategy announced the “21/21 Plan,” aiming to raise $42 billion in new capital over the next three years for buying bitcoin.

It’s well known that Strategy’s ability to continually accumulate bitcoin earlier this year stemmed from its ATM equity financing plan. The core logic of this plan is that when Strategy’s share price trades at a premium to the value of its bitcoin holdings, the company can issue additional shares to raise funds for further bitcoin purchases.

This involves Strategy’s net asset value multiple (mNAV, the ratio of enterprise market cap to the value of bitcoin holdings). Previously, Strategy’s mNAV was more than 2.5x, reflecting a significant premium on its “issue shares to buy bitcoin” strategy. However, as the share price and market risk appetite decline, this ratio has dropped. Once mNAV falls below 1, Strategy can no longer raise funds via its ATM plan.

As of December 8, Strategy’s market cap is about $52.784 billion, with a net mNAV of approximately 1.07. It currently remains above 1, but it’s concerning that Strategy’s mNAV dipped below 1 multiple times in November. TD Cowen noted in a report that Strategy’s premium has fallen significantly from its late 2023 peak and is gradually compressing to 2021-2022 levels.

Meanwhile, market expectations for Strategy’s stock performance have also shifted. Cantor Fitzgerald analysts set a 12-month price target for Strategy at $229, down about 59% from the previous $560 estimate. While Cantor reiterated an “overweight” rating on MSTR, analysts now expect Strategy to raise just $7.8 billion from capital markets over the next year, down from the previously anticipated $22.5 billion.

Furthermore, JPMorgan believes that whether Strategy can maintain mNAV above 1 and avoid selling bitcoin is a key driver of bitcoin’s price trend. This view highlights the concentration of bitcoin in Strategy’s hands and the potential risk of bitcoin sell-offs, a major market concern. Currently, Strategy holds about 3.14% of total bitcoin supply; any significant sale would undoubtedly trigger a chain reaction and potentially crash the market.

However, there’s little need to worry excessively about this risk. Strategy CEO Phong Le stated on the “What Bitcoin Did” podcast that the company would only consider selling bitcoin if mNAV drops below 1 and they can’t raise new funds—calling this a “last resort.” He emphasized that this would not be a shift in long-term policy or a proactive sell-off, but simply a financial decision in extreme market or capital conditions.

Strategy’s ATM-based accumulation of over 10,000 bitcoins also demonstrates that the company is far from being “out of options.”

In addition, global securities index provider MSCI is considering a rule to exclude companies with more than 50% of assets in digital assets from its main indices, which would include Strategy (MSTR). This sparked industry debate. JPMorgan noted that if MSTR is removed from indices like MSCI USA or the Nasdaq 100, up to $2.8 billion could exit, and with passive fund selling, the impact could be even greater.

MSCI is expected to decide on January 15. If other index providers follow, related outflows may reach $8.8 billion. According to Reuters, Strategy is in talks with MSCI to address the potential “MSCI index removal” issue.

Aiming for “Balance” in Long-Term Bitcoin Accumulation

Facing these challenges, it’s important to note that Strategy’s stance on bitcoin is resolute. Phong Le has stated the company will hold bitcoin at least until 2065, maintaining a long-term accumulation strategy.

Strategy tweeted that even if bitcoin drops to its average cost of $74,000, its BTC assets would still be 5.9 times its convertible debt. Founder Michael Saylor also highlighted at an event, “Strategy currently holds about $60 billion in bitcoin reserves and about $8 billion in debt, which is a very low leverage ratio.”

In terms of dividend payments, Phong Le specifically pointed out that Strategy faces an annual dividend payment obligation of around $800 million. As recently issued preferred shares mature, annual obligations are close to $750-800 million. He plans to prioritize paying these dividends with equity raised at prices above mNAV. For this reason, Strategy has established a $1.44 billion US dollar reserve, intended to pay dividends rather than sell equity, bitcoin derivatives, or bitcoin itself.

This dollar reserve is funded by proceeds from the company’s market issuance of Class A common stock. Strategy plans to maintain reserves sufficient to cover at least 12 months of dividend payments and aims to gradually strengthen this buffer to cover 24 months or more—without touching its $60 billion bitcoin holdings.

This is undoubtedly a prudent defensive strategy and an effective risk mitigation measure. Even though this move has sparked market controversy, the “buy blindly” phase is over for Strategy. In today’s environment, blindly “buying the dip” as bitcoin drops is no longer suitable. The drop in Strategy’s stock price is not only linked to bitcoin’s decline but also affected by bitcoin ETF market shocks. As US policy evolves and competition intensifies, Strategy stock is no longer the institutional investor’s top choice for bitcoin exposure.

Therefore, Strategy needs to explore strategies better suited to its own development, finding the right balance between long-term bitcoin accumulation and maintaining normal company operations.

Currently, Strategy seems to be seeking ways to improve asset utilization. Phong Le said he does not rule out lending bitcoin to enhance financial flexibility. Meanwhile, Michael Saylor is actively promoting bitcoin-backed digital banking systems to governments globally, aiming to provide high-yield, low-volatility accounts to attract trillions in deposits.

Additionally, Strategy is working to reduce potential risks around bitcoin custody. According to Arkham, to reduce reliance on Coinbase, Strategy is diversifying its custodians. As of December 6, Strategy had transferred about 183,900 bitcoins to Fidelity Custody, about 28% of its bitcoin holdings.

It’s worth noting that, despite ongoing doubts and concerns about Strategy, the overall market remains optimistic. Regarding the “MSCI removal risk” mentioned earlier, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted that index inclusion/exclusion has a much less significant impact on share price than investors fear. When Strategy was included in the Nasdaq 100 last year, passive funds bought about $2.1 billion in shares, yet “the share price barely moved.” The recent share price drop may simply reflect the market pricing in the possibility of removal, and long-term, dramatic fluctuations are unlikely.

JPMorgan shares a similar view, believing Strategy’s MSCI removal risk is already fully priced in, and its share price reflects the impact of being dropped from major stock benchmarks. JPMorgan also sees the impending MSCI decision as a potential upside catalyst—while removal may cause some passive outflows, any subsequent positive MSCI decision could boost both Strategy’s share price and bitcoin.

Moreover, Wall Street broker Benchmark is confident in Strategy’s solvency, arguing its debt is manageable, its structure more robust than critics claim, and concerns over its survival are just noise that emerges whenever bitcoin falls.

Before Strategy disclosed its purchase of 10,624 bitcoins last week, such views may have appeared to be mere attempts to boost market sentiment. But as the market anticipates a new bitcoin upcycle early next year, Strategy’s latest purchase not only strengthens market confidence in bitcoin and signals its belief that “bitcoin prices won’t fall sharply,” but also underscores a firm long-term bet on bitcoin’s value. When the market recovers and capital flows return, Strategy may find itself on far more favorable strategic ground.